I am interested in learning about swing statistics for the ES. I would like to find out what are the range values for each swing on a five minute chart for every day for a year or more, then the averages weekly. I think a good filter would be to smooth the swing values to a 10-12%, so for example if one finds there are x amounts of swings in a year between 4.8 and 5.30, then make an average in that 10-12% range of variation, then get an average for that and how many times is happened, then from there one could analyze the averages for weekly or monthly periods.

I found some numbers in a book when the ES was around 1,500 for the average swings. I have 5.4, 6.85, 8.7, 10.8, 16.2, and 21.6 points. I want to know if this is still relevant and if the averages have changed. I think that finding these statistics could give some perspective in terms of the average risk/reward to take for a given swing based on certain patterns. Maybe then from there one could work on a indicator to sort these swing values on a real time basis. I am not suggesting that there is an edge in this thou.

Use the main thread for discussing or gathering statistics, it has already been done:

Master Homework and Statistics Thread I often think of trade ideas, but seldom have time to perform analysis on them. I have even thought of hiring an "intern" type of person that could crunch numbers all day, but I thought I would try this thread first. If I provide the raw formatted …

For a lagging indicator, use ZigZag or its many variations including PriceActionSwing if you are on NT:

PriceActionSwing discussion I welcome any feedback, comments and suggestions for improvement. Please discuss the PriceActionSwing (PAS) indicator in this thread. Any comments or suggestions are more than welcome here. If you have a more private issue send me a PM or better an …

Mike