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Updated November 7, 2016
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October 25th, 2016, 04:33 PM
Duluth MN
Market Wizard
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP
Trading: ES
Posts: 1,027 since Jan 2015
Thanks Given: 1,419
Thanks Received: 2,676
October 25th, 2016, 04:47 PM
Bridgeport, Ct
Experience: None
Broker: Tasty
Trading: Fops
Posts: 533 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 1,588
Thanks Received: 923
rocksolid68
It went poorly!
I was up a little bit in the morning, then ended up taking a loss that was bigger than my previous win! Worst part was is that my analysis was perfect, but my execution was not.
I could have performed better but I am not going to be too hard on myself. I am always learning.
Two losing days in a row for this guy! This is the largest draw down I have taken since opening the room! The largest draw down prior to this one was 10 ticks!
That is okay though, I have yet to even erase my excess gains from last week, so all is good
+180% last week. If we take that number and use it for a 2-week
basis , I have achieved 90% of my two week goal. After these last two days, I am still over 70% of the way to my two week goal with 3 days to go. I am still fine, I take these draw downs all the time; the cost of doing business.
Thanks for asking!
You'll get em tomorrow, don't worry about it
October 25th, 2016, 09:18 PM
Raleigh, NC
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Futures, Options, Crypto
Posts: 112 since Sep 2016
Thanks Given: 353
Thanks Received: 196
rocksolid68
It went poorly!
I was up a little bit in the morning, then ended up taking a loss that was bigger than my previous win! Worst part was is that my analysis was perfect, but my execution was not.
I could have performed better but I am not going to be too hard on myself. I am always learning.
Two losing days in a row for this guy! This is the largest draw down I have taken since opening the room! The largest draw down prior to this one was 10 ticks!
That is okay though, I have yet to even erase my excess gains from last week, so all is good
+180% last week. If we take that number and use it for a 2-week
basis , I have achieved 90% of my two week goal. After these last two days, I am still over 70% of the way to my two week goal with 3 days to go. I am still fine, I take these draw downs all the time; the cost of doing business.
Thanks for asking!
I love your math
Sent from my iPhone using futures.io
"It's not about being right or wrong, it's about how much money you make when you're right, and how much you don't lose when you're wrong"
October 26th, 2016, 12:07 PM
Duluth MN
Market Wizard
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP
Trading: ES
Posts: 1,027 since Jan 2015
Thanks Given: 1,419
Thanks Received: 2,676
I added one contract to my ES short. Average at 37.50 now. Aiming for VWAP 's (~32.25)
I am also testing GC long. I think that GC is lagging behind bonds at the moment and is due for a move up. Not only that, but the risk is fairly negligible.
EDIT: Stopped on GC.. Added to ES
EDIT Before I step away for class: ES going very well. About to be net positive on the week and if all goes well, I will hit my 2-week goal I will post photos once home again
October 26th, 2016, 02:21 PM
San Diego California
Posts: 129 since Oct 2015
Thanks Given: 23
Thanks Received: 50
Great job adding to a winner Alex. I'm the guy that shorted at 2140 in the meeting but couldn't hold at all through the distribution and i only made 11 ticks on such a good short idea...only held for like 10 mins. Same with bullish bias in the opening and jabbing at longs but I got out before inventory news pop .......
What do you think I need to work on? Patience? Confidence with my trade? Psychology?
Or maybe I need to look longer term and stop looking at every tick which makes me run out of my position?
I feel like I tend to be very early with smart money but when market jigsaws like it does at these key levels, I get wishwashed into thinking I am wrong and I sell my positions way too early.
October 26th, 2016, 02:42 PM
Duluth MN
Market Wizard
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP
Trading: ES
Posts: 1,027 since Jan 2015
Thanks Given: 1,419
Thanks Received: 2,676
emptymind
Great job
adding to a winner Alex. I'm the guy that shorted at 2140 in the meeting but couldn't hold at all through the distribution and i only made 11 ticks on such a good short idea...only held for like 10 mins. Same with
bullish bias in the opening and jabbing at longs but I got out before inventory news
pop .......
What do you think I need to work on? Patience? Confidence with my trade? Psychology?
Or maybe I need to look longer term and stop looking at every tick which makes me run out of my position?
I feel like I tend to be very early with smart money but when market jigsaws like it does at these key levels, I get wishwashed into thinking I am wrong and I sell my positions way too early.
I will reply to you once I am home tonight. I am going out for my father's birthday.
Thanks for taking the time to post here. I will do my best to help!
Sent from my iPhone using NexusFi mobile app
October 26th, 2016, 08:55 PM
Duluth MN
Market Wizard
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP
Trading: ES
Posts: 1,027 since Jan 2015
Thanks Given: 1,419
Thanks Received: 2,676
Here it is! My short that played out very nicely.
I had to leave for class hence why I took only 4-ticks on the 3rd lot. I am wishing I had stuck to my original idea and placed my runner 's target at OR-H (where it bounced) but I didn't which was a $200 mistake. Regardless, I was able to rake in a fair amount today. I cleaned up my losses from the past two days, and ~$100 to spare
Pretty pumped! Haha. I like rebound days!
Thanked by:
bobwest , Brinol1 , Chippstrader , ddspock , HumbleTrader , JohnS , KBH80 , lovetotrade , S trader , sagor , TheShrike , wxsim1
October 26th, 2016, 11:15 PM
Duluth MN
Market Wizard
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP
Trading: ES
Posts: 1,027 since Jan 2015
Thanks Given: 1,419
Thanks Received: 2,676
emptymind
Great job
adding to a winner Alex. I'm the guy that shorted at 2140 in the meeting but couldn't hold at all through the distribution and i only made 11 ticks on such a good short idea...only held for like 10 mins. Same with
bullish bias in the opening and jabbing at longs but I got out before inventory news
pop .......
What do you think I need to work on? Patience? Confidence with my trade? Psychology?
Or maybe I need to look longer term and stop looking at every tick which makes me run out of my position?
I feel like I tend to be very early with smart money but when market jigsaws like it does at these key levels, I get wishwashed into thinking I am wrong and I sell my positions way too early.
Read the following post:
rocksolid68
Hello late-night viewers
Are you ready for some teaching? Haha
So, a key aspect of trading is understanding what "asymmetrical returns" are and how to achieve them in your trading.
Asymmetrical returns. Sounds cool, right? Well, that's because it is!
Asymmetrical returns has a billion definitions, but to put it in trader layman's terms: capturing more upside and less of the downside.
"Well, duh Alex. Who doesn't want that?" -You
"Well fellow trader, since it is so simple, what are you waiting for
" -Me
What it means to have asymmetrical returns is that you make far more per win that per loss.
@
Inletcap describes them as taking a trade because it does not matter the outcome, for in the long-run you are profitable. (paraphrasing, please correct if need
)
@
tigertrader quote that fits to the subject:
"tend to agree with itchy, and not just because he's my neighbor. everything happens for a reason even though you may not be able to determine the cause; even random
chop . the trick is being able to determine what the effect (if any)will be on your position. e.g., if you are long and the market and it sells off, and you understand what's taking place and/or are expecting it, then it's an opportunity to add, as opposed to an opportunity to panic and get shaken out. this past friday was a perfect example. it was the last trading day of a month that had experienced a linear move higher. odds were in favor of month-end profit taking. even though the market drift was up, it made sense to trade the market from the
short side on an intra-day
basis . however, if one was long coming into the day, it was also an opportunity to add to the long position, and/or an opportunity to initiate a new long. that was because, the following trading day was the beginning of the new month with very strong seasonality, compounded by the fact that the drift was higher and the short, intermediate, and long term trends were all bullish. while there was money to be made on an intra-day/ counter-trend basis, there was much more money to be made, trading with the trend. in the former case one is limited to how much money they can make, and in the latter case that limit has been removed. one should alsways be looking for the trade that offers them the best opportunity to make the most money. this is what taleb refers to as “Optionality" or the asymmetric upside (preferably unlimited) with correspondingly limited downside (preferably tiny).”"
Long read, but definitely worthwhile. What he is saying is that you should take trades not with the fear of losing, but with the hope of making
LOTS of money. Like @
tigertrader says here, "one should alsways be looking for the trade that offers them the best opportunity to make the most money."
He also says that when you are confident in your market analysis, you should not look at movement "against" your position as a bad sign, but rather a good time to add. This happened to me today, and allowed me to buy a second lot and make a quick 21 ticks extra. But I will talk more about how this affects me later.
Another quote by him:
"it's not only about time-frames, but it's about trade management, and how traders behave when faced with probabilities. if you offer a subject a sure win and you offer them a lottery that's a little better, they'll take the sure win. on the other hand, if you offer them a sure loss or a lottery that's a little worse but has a chance of recouping their loss, they'll take the lottery (st. petersburg paradox). this is the reason why traders like to take quick profits and play with their loses, instead of the other way around. there are other ways in which profits and losses are not equivalent. one is objective and has to do with non-linearity i.e., it takes a 100% profit to make up a 50% loss, and for many traders, the prospect of a 150% profit does not compensate for the risk or emotional pain of a 50% loss (prospect theory). what's really important is exploiting your winners regardless of the time-frame you're trading. w/o asymmetric returns, you'll be spinning your wheels in either time-frame."
I think this is very important. Re-read the last sentence. Most traders spend so much time trying to figure out the time frame they need to use or the chart type etc. Guess what! None of it matters if you do not manage your trades correctly!!!
I firmly believe that anyone can be profitable with any tools if they have confidence and the ability to achieve asymmetric returns! I am not kidding! I am no different than you all! We are all humans with the ability to think and click buttons on a screen! The difference is how we think and how we click those buttons.
I am thinking about starting a new thread having to do with this idea. I may if I think I have time
Anyways, back to the subject. This is a lot of information and may seem a bit pointless, but I promise, it is not. I would not devote this much time to it if I thought so
So, lets talk about my trade today. Go up and look at the chart. See my trade? Let's go over it.
I create my
thesis and decide I want to buy long. Guess what happened? I bought long. I was confident that in the long-term, my wins would outweigh my losers. Why? Because I know that the second I bought that long, that if I lost on it, I would lose a small amount. But man.... If I won....
If we look at the previous day. My largest loss I took was ~24 ticks or so. I was totally fine with that! I don't mind at all! I don't care because I know that over time I will achieve asymmetrical returns. I always take my trades aiming for the big wins.
Okay ladies and gentlemen... This topic is far too important to try and fit in one post. It really is. Do your research and re-read this if you'd like. This is soooooo important. Maybe @
Big Mike would give his word on such a subject.
I will try to sum this all up with one quote from Tiger (paraphrased):
"People worry too much on maximizing chances of profitable trades, and far too little on maximizing profitable trades."
Ride your winners. You just beat the markets, why not let it pay you what you deserve?
(Extra Tiger quote for those interested)
I made that a while back at the beginning of this journal.
Also, see what I said to @Ceerock81 in his journal just earlier tonight:
rocksolid68
Then your trade management is the only issue.
You are a profitable trader, just hidden in the shadows of improper management.
Here is my suggestion:
-Expand targets
-Keep risk low
-ALWAYS take the trade if it is per your methodology
-Realize that you should always take the trade, because otherwise you are just throwing potential down the drain
-Realize that the trade you take does not matter, because in the long run you will be fine
Does this make sense? You are profitable, so don't worry about the other crap. Focus on pulling the trigger. If emotions are why you are not receiving asymmetric returns, then do this:
-Enter the trade
-Set stops at a price where the market proves your thesis wrong
-Set targets that are at prices you think the market can get to and that also bank your day's income (3-6
points per lot)
-Place other targets at areas that are further that you think are possible. (6-20 points away and more if you believe they are possible)
-Walk away from your computer. If messing with your trade is the issue, walk away. I did this for a while. I couldn't
handle taking the profit once I saw it.
Lastly, trust yourself. I know you can do it; so does your wife. Don't disappoint us
Keep it up @
Ceerock81 , I believe in you.
If these do not help, ask again in the room tomorrow. I may be able to give a more thorough and specific answer. Anyways, I hope this helps!
Thanked by:
Brinol1 , DaxyMcDaxFace , eagle75 , grausch , jaobr2 , JohnS , KBH80 , lovetotrade , ratfink , S trader , tbondtrader
October 27th, 2016, 12:34 PM
London
Market Wizard
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES, CL
Posts: 575 since May 2016
Thanks Given: 1,066
Thanks Received: 444
hey @rocksolid68
how has the rest of the day gone? i had to jump out of the room at 10am EST so missed whatever you did in there.
October 27th, 2016, 12:46 PM
Duluth MN
Market Wizard
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP
Trading: ES
Posts: 1,027 since Jan 2015
Thanks Given: 1,419
Thanks Received: 2,676
DaxyMcDaxFace
hey @
rocksolid68
how has the rest of the day gone? i had to jump out of the room at 10am
EST so missed whatever you did in there.
Nailed the longside!!!
I recovered all losses and ~$300 more!
Last Updated on November 7, 2016