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Do you use any tools for evaluating seasonality?
I have the MRCI Seasonality pdf I consult, but this may not be very uptodate anymore.
I looked into seasonalgo.com, that looks good. One can use ZC for free, but so far I shied away from doing a full abo, since I still trade small and I am not yet sure if the costs are justified for a samll account.
I use MRCI data for many years, and these data help me a lot. In addition to seasonals for outrights and spreads they show seasonals for volatility, which is essential for option sellers.
1. I rarely sell options on currency futures. I am not successful in this business (see some of my older posts.).
2. I definitely would not sell Euro calls before the French elections. (The final election will be in two weeks.) In case the supporters of the European Union win, the Euro might move upwards strongly.
3. If I were convinced the supporters of the European Union would win (loose), I would have bought (sold) the Euro outright during last week. But Brexit vote and US vote demonstrated that forecasts can be wrong. Thus, I stay on the sideline. There are more interesting trades for me than speculation on the result of elections.
A currency trader - I am not one of them - might think about the idea to wait for a bounce of the Euro after the (second) election in France, if it occurs. And then sell Euro calls. Often political influences on future prices do not last Long. The COT data is bearish.
Of course it is possible that the Euro reaches its high during this week and volatility comes down, as the result of the first round of the French election was quite clear. But there remains the risk of a surprize in the second round, as we learnt in recent elections (Brexit, US president).