NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Predicting algos that will be successful with the tail ratio


Discussion in Traders Hideout

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Virtuose1 with 1 posts (1 thanks)
    2. looks_two SMCJB with 1 posts (1 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Quick Summary with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 tpredictor with 1 posts (1 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one ShatteredX with 2 thanks per post
    2. looks_two tpredictor with 1 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Virtuose1 with 1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 SMCJB with 1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 3,899 views
    2. thumb_up 5 thanks given
    3. group 5 followers
    1. forum 4 posts
    2. attach_file 0 attachments




 
Search this Thread
  #1 (permalink)
 
Virtuose1's Avatar
 Virtuose1 
Montreal, Qc, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 7
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ETF
Posts: 58 since Jun 2011
Thanks Given: 142
Thanks Received: 42

Nice article which describes how the tail ratio (and other criteria) can help assess the likelihood of future success of trading algos:
https://blog.quantopian.com/using-machine-learning-to-predict-out-of-sample-performance-of-trading-algorithms/

Has anyone ever heard of an add-on to NT7 that would allow to optimize algos based on the tail ratio ?


Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Would a node-based workflow for automated trading be useful?
Traders Hideout
Iran Lebanon Problem Kills Switzerland Talks, Brent at $ …
Prediction Markets & Event Contracts
No book, only a stair: journaling fills where price move …
Cryptocurrency
Daytrading to swingtrading
Traders Hideout
Datafeed for Atas
Platforms and Indicators
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Want your NinjaTrader indicator created, free?
5 thanks
Afternoon-close session
1 thanks
Franks Trading Journey
1 thanks
Denied 20K payouts: Alpha Futures
1 thanks
FootPrintV2 Chart for NT8
1 thanks
  #3 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT Stellar & Tradestation
Broker: Primarily Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,247 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,591
Thanks Received: 10,544


Interesting. "Mean" is overly effected by outliers, and things like sharpe or standard deviation assume normal, symmetrical distributions. How many times have you heard about cutting your losses and letting your losers run. Well that's the opposite of a symmetrical distribution so it would make sense that something like 'tail ratio' is a good predictor. Of course the fact that “user_backtest_days” ranks so highly (I assume as a negative predictor) probably means that most systems are overfit, or in other words 'bad' systems. I doubt you would get the same results if your universe of designed systems were better.

Sorry doesn't answer your question.


Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #4 (permalink)
 ShatteredX 
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Python
Trading: NQ
Posts: 97 since Apr 2016
Thanks Given: 133
Thanks Received: 96

So, "tail ratio" is bigger when returns are positively skewed? As in, a few big wins and many small losses? Is that what it means?

If so, then higher tail ratio would probably mean that you're using a trend following strategy.

So this post is saying that trend following strategies have better out of sample results than mean reversion strategies?


Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #5 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
North Carolina
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Trading: es
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011

Interesting analysis but possibly flawed unless they chose different periods for all the backtest, if trend following did better during the subsequent period it would tend to favor those strategies. You need to mix all the dates up so that all the OOS periods are different.


Reply With Quote




Last Updated on June 10, 2017


© 2026 NexusFi®, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Downloads - Top
no new posts