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Currently I hold the following positions in the short options portfolio:
LHQ P70 / C88
LHV P58 / C78
Longterm trades. I intend to exit the October options at 50 %,I have not yet decided on the August options.
LCV P100 / C136
In my opinion, the highs are in, and LC prices will move more or less sidewards. But there will be strong moves upwards and downwards.
ESU P2150, ESV P2025, ESV P2100, ESV C2560.
Intend to buy back at 50 %.
CTZ C85
Took profit of approx. 60 %, and intend to re-enter at a price of CTZ of above 70.
NGV P2.5
Took a small profit, and do not intend to re-enter short NG options. Weather will be important in the near future, and weather is hard to predict.
GCG P1100 / C1500
Took a quick small profit, as volatility has come down.
Is anyone considering selling Sugar puts? I know you shouldnīt try to catch a falling knife, but thatīs the reason we trade options instead of futures.
To me it looks like trying to catch a falling knife.
I would understand your argument that we trade options, if you would buy them. But selling put options gives you the same downside risk as being long futures.
I intend to close my LCQ7 P97/C140 strangle soon, and intend to open the same strangle again for LCV7.
But seasonality calls for rising prices, so possibly I start with the Put only at first.
The August strangle should be highly profitable at this time. I already rolled some time ago.
I agree that cash prices for Live Cattle in October should be higher than future prices today, and, thus, it does make sense to enter the puts first. But of course there remains risk that a further short-term move downwards follows before the move upwards. The problem with entering the complete strangle now is that the LCV calls that do make sense (I hold the LCV P100 / C136 strangle) are too cheap.
This is a good point. I get out of a short option trade earlier - often at 50 % - if I have an idea of the next trade. In case I do not see other interesting trades and the current trade seems to be safe, I also stay in the trade, even if the return per day is lower. (But also risk usually is lower.)
Currently it seems to me that there are a lot of interesting trades around.
Yes, the grains are becoming interesting now. I have ZC Calls on my radar.
Also the current bump in CL may be a good opportunity next week or so to sell Calls.
I also think ZB puts will be feasible in a bit.