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It depends on the commodity. From time to time there are severe changes in the fundamentals of each commodity, and seasonal charts going back too far are worthless. Some examples:
In the nineties there were problems regarding the coffee crop in Brazil due to frost. As a consequence, coffee plants were moved to a safer region.
15 or 20 years ago the orange crop in Florida had similar frost problems. The trees were moved southwards.
1950 there were not many exports of soybeans from Brazil, and seasonals were determinded more or less only by the crop cycle in the US. Today Brazil is a large exporter. Seasonals for soybeans now include the South American crop cycle, which obviously is different from the North American one.
Furthermore, the 5 year charts have the risk that they are strongly influenced by one extreme year.
Ron's charts really help to find a seasonal chart that fits to a commodity. Although I am customer of MRCI for many years, I often use them.
I should keep half of long putsposition for a an a hour,but last week when didd it I lost b/c the price took off,so now I am more cautious. Trump saga could play loner.Rumors about G.Cohen resign. could be not so fake and distant
For my taste, these options are too cheap, not enough DTE (only 37), and too close to the money. If the price of the underlying moves only 10 c, the value of the options will have doubled.
Soybeans are still in a weather market - pod filling stage is not over in all regions. In case of an unfriendly weather report on Sunday the price of soymeal might show a gap upwards. (I do not like to sell options in a weather market at all.)
But of course, this trade might be a winner. The problem is: If you place such trades for a while, there will be a looser. And this looser might eat up all of your previous gains (and perhaps more).
Mine is still pending but it's got 21 days of decay built in and will be my last one for a bit also. I hope this volatility calms down again but at this point who knows.
I have a question of a practicality so to say. The profit of baying back half premium is around $ 1.5-2, which is ~ $100 minus commission , per month !! Is it worth the effort,unless you have another 3,4 positions in other products.Sorry in advance ,maybe I don't understand something here