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It basically states that people will go on vacation during the summer and volume would tend to dry up a bit in the futures and forex market creating a lot of chops or failed setups. Then it picks up in september, and picks up a bit more after new year. While August being the worst month.
The reason why I'm asking is that I backtested my strategy with dates ranging from November 2017 - Frebruary 2018, and I started papertrading live market from Frebruary to Now. I have been doing good and still profitable, but had a small losing streak and have been getting stopped out a bit more often.
I was planning to go live soon, but I'm afraid if I start during the worst months July / August, the odds are against me to be successful.
I want the best probability to become a trader. Just like we take the best probability setups. Is there a time of the year when you would recommend a new person to start trading rather then other times?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
If you're trading futures, you really don't need to worry about this. Stocks are more subject to this in my opinion. Time when volume is lighter is around three day weekends, holidays, winter and spring break. I personally wouldn't worry about it. At one point I thought the same thing about the summer months, not sure why, last year was pretty good. I guess when you hear on forums summer doldrums and something about May and traders go away. There are always opportunities to be had. In trading less is more, unless you are talking about contract/lot/or share size. I used to say
be careful on Friday's, but it really doesn't matter what day of the week. There are at least a couple good days a week. When the market isn't clear to you, sit on your hands.
