Well, do you?

Studying COMPLETELY ABSTRACT chart patterns over a historical period...

In order to predict THE FUTURE...

If this isn't creativity then I don't know what creativity is.

I believe that any problem-solving skill involves creative solutions. Trading is no different.

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

I once created a type of diagram of investment opportunities. The most sure investments typically require less creativity and have higher certainty of return (think real estate). The more creative endeavors have much higher risk and return (think Tesla). I think trading is somewhere in the middle. Now that I think about it, I realize that traders should be more successful as a whole but probably aren't because of the low starting resources, over leverage, and lack of development.

mzelixon 

Well, do you? Studying COMPLETELY ABSTRACT chart patterns over a historical period... In order to predict THE FUTURE... If this isn't creativity then I don't know what creativity is.

Anyone out there fighting the good fight and trying to solve the various mysteries of the market will have to be a creative problem solver. But there is a very specific analytical skill set and scientific approach that needs to be used to do this. Being generically creative is great, but in and of itself this can lead disaster for a trader if you apply your creativity to pseudoscience and start making up relationships and rules that aren't fully vetted or quantified.

I have a tagline on here that speaks to this, but pulling numbers out of thin air after looking at a few charts, and declaring 50% of the time this will happen, or 90% of the time that will happen with a sample size of practically nothing is the wrong path.

The analytical approach alone won't show you the exact bet you need to make, but it will help you quantify all the variables you need to solve for. Once you have this foundation, you can then be creative and solve the problem. But most people unfortunately work this backwards... They start out solving for something with bad data, virtually no understanding of the problem, a weak understanding of the market and microstructures, and they fail.

Interesting discussion for sure!


And now for that pretentious sounding tagline.

Ian

Trading is more of an art than science. It is not bounded by rigid rules as in science, but flrxible enough to have more room for creativity. Trading is the art of mastering patterns, the mental fitness, discipline ,the art of making money consistenly and the art of following a valid plan. And just like an artist a trader uses creativity as a skill more in this evolution process as a beginner to experienced and consistently profitable trader.