If it was as simple as a+b = c, don't you think that the zillion machine learning programmers would have coded it already.
You are on the right track, just don't try to oversimplify it to 2-3 variables. The market is a much more complex beast than that, if you want absolute understanding. You don't need it to be profitable though.
What the market does not do is so much more important than what it does.
Try reading the Markets in profile[Dalton] 3-4 times. You will be surprised by the number of ideas you can generate every time you read it.
Cheers