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I had the same reaction to his The Art of the Trade. I bought it during a bad patch, on a recommendation from Tim Knight. At first I liked it and I thought I was getting spiritually energized. About half way through, it dawned on me that I had just fallen in a rabbit hole of emotional BS. The singular lesson I took away is that I'm vulnerable to emotional BS.
I also sampled his chat room during his short-lived stint at thinkorswim. I didn't see anything noteworthy regarding his charting skills and he was too easily agitated by the users that challenged his presentation. I doubt his ability to earn, and recommend steering clear.
haha I can't agree more.
The problem with these type of books is the causality is backwards.
Evidence Based TA book was important for me because it introduced me to the concept of the bootstrap and the overall philosophy pulled me out of the nonsense of TA.
I feel like de Prado "Advances in Financial Machine Learning " is on the same level of mindset shift for me. The content is not really all that great but the mindset shift was worth the cost of admission.
Do you mean that the positive expectancy is the result of the positive mindset, therefore the mindset had to have existed first? Yeah, that seems inverted at first glance but I took it to mean that it was up to the reader to apply the practice and then look for the result after. Any trading plan will have an expectancy - even if it was never traded. A plan with a demonstrated positive expectancy generates a positive mindset before the first order is placed.
I lifted his summary description of the zone and put it into my personal system manual (paraphrased):
Mark Douglas described being in the zone as:
• No fear, no euphoria
• No hesitation, no compulsion.
• No agenda:
- No need to be right.
- No need to regain lost money.
- No need to take revenge against the other participants.
- No need to avoid the loss (predefined amount).
• Confident acceptance of risk.
• Peaceful acceptance of any outcome.
And I'm pretty sure this is Douglas:
Thinking in terms of probabilities shifts the basis of right/wrong from the individual trade to a large sample of trades.
Taken together and reduced further, the meaning I took was: Small samples of reality are inaccurate, so don't act like a child during the bad ones.
Got an email from Amazon @ the release of this book
just checked it and no reviews on Amazon
not sure they would post devastating negative release
but based on what you say, the book is very poor... pitty
It is worth 5 bucks for sure. I guess what I said was a bit too negative as it just falls short of my high expectations. I was expecting this to be the greatest book ever based on the table of contents. I thought it was basically going to be a masterpiece of machine learning for trading with all using quandl data.
It is not that but it is not useless either.
I had just in the past 6 months too got Deep Learning with Python by Francois Chollet the creator of Keras. That is a masterpiece of technical writing, that might be the best technical book I have ever read. I guess that it should not be surprising that the brain to make keras would be amazing at making complex ideas simple. So this trading book is getting compared to Chollet in my mind and that is probably not fair.
In this Packt book this Bayesian Sharpe ratio code in pymc3 might be worth the whole $5. So I should say it probably fails as a complete text but there are nice little nuggets.
I often find that books not related to trading per se could teach you the most about trading. Trading is a process of thinking, processing, evaluating, and predicting while all based on our inherent DNA.
Right now, I am in the process of reading Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. It is a rare look into how we evaluate risk, process thoughts and make our overall choices. We all think we are unique individuals, but from a statistical point, many times we are not. Our DNA makes the decisions for us, while we believe we are independent thinkers.
In my opinion, if we are aware of the way we think as humans, we can to some degree alter our behavior to see where our thought process that relies heavily on intuition can make us make bad choices.
I hope you enjoy this book and have the ability to withstand the "pain" of Academics talking around their point forever, LOL.
Thank you,
Matt Z
Optimus Futures
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