Preperations
News releases
- House sales at 9 am
- Brexit voting at 11am
Big picture CL
- Longer term is bullish
- Mid term pattern is bullish, longer term resistance has been broken
- Price swinging sideways overnight, chopping inside the OR since the open
- ATR 8, below average volatility. RVOL 109%, average volume
- Hypo 1: Price continues to move up
- Hypo 2: Price stalls and falls below
Big picture ES
- Longer term is neutral, bullish if price gets through the current longer term resistance at 2825
- Bullish
- Price has been chopping sideways overnight, inside the OR since the open
- ATR 9, average volatility. RVOL 185%, above average volume
- Hypo 1: Price continues to chop sideways
- Hypo 2: Price tests 2825, fails and drops
Executions
CL
- Price is chopping just below HOD. RVOL is flat. It doesn't look like there is enough momentum for a breakout. Volume deminishes, expecting any movement soon. I put my breakout order at a safe distance of 10 ticks to avoid it being triggered by a false breakout, price then suddenly peaks 10 ticks and triggers it. RVOL peak of 3x, I decide to stay in. Stopped on #1 on a pullback to ORH. Stopped on #2 also.
- Full stops hit, reducing size. Price is chopping at ORH. Volume seems to be directed to the downside. Price touches y-high then pulls back again, missing my limit order by 1 tick. Triggered on another attempt. I don't trust it since RVOL doesn't move, closing it with small profit
- Price starts chopping.
ES
- Price just touched VWAP / ORH and pulls back into OR. $tick is weak. Price grinds lower. I decide not to trade a potential breakout, price however breaks below on increased volume. It pulls back on light volume, $tick is back to neutral
A loss of 103 dollar.
Evaluation
Packing my stuff for a short business trip to Portugal. No trading tomorow