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I am with you at 100% and this is also my strategy (after mixed results trying to get 4 spread contracts expiring each month and opening them 4 months in advance).
While this thread is about selling options on futures as you are probably aware it is heavily concentrated on selling ES options (primarily puts). With the recent volatility in equity markets (Dec18, May19 etc) there's been a lot more risk in selling ES puts, which probably explains the drop in activity in this thread. I believe even @ron99 who is probably the biggest contributor to this thread is currently in pause mode.
Thank you! I am aware of the other thread, just thought Id finish this one and move on to the one you said, and after that will seek veterans with my questions. Im at page 250 and see that interest in ES is rising, Ill just skim through anything Im not mainly interested in but still try to finish the thread, there is still so much to learn from every aspect of trading.
I agree. If you have a look at my thread "Diversified Option Selling Portfolio" you will see, that currently I prefer trading futures or future spreads.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
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Interesting statement. Obviously it is not fair to blame Obama for the 2008-2009 financial crisis which he inherited, and you can definitely argue that some/a lot/all (take your pick) of the recent stock market rally is due to policy's that have nothing to do with Trump. Hence while I don't personally disagree with your politics (I follow you on Twitter) the actual mathematics do not support your statement.
Average of SPX 30 day Historical Volatility 01Feb09-31Dec12 (Obama's First Term) 19%
Average of SPX 30 day Historical Volatility 01Jan13-31Dec16 (Obama's Second Term) 12.3%
Average of SPX 30 day Historical Volatility 01Feb17-19Jun19 (Trump's First Term) 11.4%
While Cordier's risk management could have been better, his insight into seasonal trades have been pretty good. He's newsletters easy to read and understand. I haven't been able to find anything as good since they went bust.
Have a look at the MRCI site. They offer a weekly newsletter describing entries and exits of seasonal trades. I had subscribed to it many years ago when I started seasonal trading.
They trade outright and future spreads, but of course you can use their ides for option trades.
I have visited and used the site for their seasonal charts. I thought about subscribing to their service as well. Like you mentioned, they provide tabled data on entry and exit dates and probability on making money on the trade. However, there doesn't seem to be a study on the current market conditions for this year.
Feeder cattle is such an example. Seasonally, they should rise in the summer months. However, it doesn't look very promising (yet) this year.
Agrimoney does seem to have an in depth study and reports on various commodities. However, I have no idea how much they charge for subscriptions.
The service I am reffering to is "Jerry's Weekly Spread Commentary" by MRCI. According to the description of this service they also provide fundamental information. You can get a 14 day free trial. The service sosts 19 $ per month or 135 $ per year.