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Alright I feel like I'm spamming at this point lol. This'll be my last post for a while and I'll put the rest in my Google Docs trading journal. I will be risking a full 1R with this trade since I am liking the set up so much. Depending on the close, I may keep it open overnight.
^^^ Ended up getting shaken out of my position before the selling at the close.
I got caught up picking a top. That isn't my bread and butter. I can eat just fine if I miss the first and last percentage points of a move and only capture 8% of 10% move. The biggest takeaway for me is to institutional players (aka volume) to enter the picture like they did in the final 30m of trading.
With that said, I am proud of how I sat on my hands for most of my day. Patiently waiting for the markets is a strength that I want to take advantage of as much as possible. I will work on the execution aspect but at the same time, I just have to regroup and play the next hand. This analogy reminds me that I should revisit my copy of 'Zen and The Art Of Poker' so that I get even more indifferent to folding when the markets deal hands that are probably better unplayed.
They don't call it the Options Bible for nothing:
I was of the mind that implied volatility spikes when the markets go lower. It is true, but only when the dip in price leads to fear... if not, ITM puts are less efficient than ITM calls because they lose their intrinsic value at a faster clip. Also, the implied volatility has dipped as well. Right now, I am shorting downtrending stock, and so fear is already built in so it's less efficient. I'll take probability over efficiency in this instance though.
Realized that I was too zoomed in for my trading. Deleted the 5m chart from my quick settings completely. Moving forward, my drill down chart will be the 15m.
I jumped into SPY again this morning. Only 1 put in play since I widened my stops.
I also opened shorts on BAX, GM and GDX.
Contrarian views to my positions
BAX is concerning in terms of price action as it is trending sideways while the markets are heading lower.
GDX is a play on precious metals and I know they are known to to run/gap violently but the trend is telling me to sell.
GM released some news about a partnership with an electric vehicle company earlier this week. I am fading that move but strength could pop up at any moment so I want to be ready.
SPY is bouncing and in the midst of putting in a higher low on the 30m
Hopefully I'm not getting too cute here. Sold a Bear Put Spread on TSLA since my stop would've been two wide to play with outright options.
The volatility is what attracted me to the trade but the allure of trading TSLA is also there.
I need to reread the difference between Bear Put Spreads and Bear Call Spreads. I used a Bear Call Spread but I think because of the high Implied Volatility, I should've used a Bear Call Spread instead? I will dig deeper into this during the week. I'm not sure I'm being compensated well enough for the risk I'm undertaking but then again, the risk is defined through the spread. Maybe i'm just used to uncapped profits and so spreads feel a little limiting.
Either way, it is in my Roth IRA so it won't show up in my EOM stats but it's good to try new things
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,057 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,399
Thanks Received: 10,225
Maybe being overly technical here which also may depend upon your definitions, but I don't think it's really the case of Bear Put vs Bear Call but more specifically location of strikes.
If Tesla is trading 375, a 400/425 Bear Put spread and 400/425 Bear Call spread will behave the same (delta, gamma, theta), in both cases you are short the option closed to the underlying and long the one furthest from the underlying.
Similarly If Tesla is trading 375, a 325/350 Bear Put spread and 325/350 Bear Call spread will behave the same, in both cases you are short the option furthest to the underlying and long the one closest from the underlying.
But If Tesla is trading 375, a 325/350 Bear Put spread is different to 400/425 Bear Call spread. If your correct and prices go down you will make more in the short term on the Bear Put Spread than the Bear Call Spread. If your wrong and prices go up you will lose less on the Bear Put than the Bear Call. So if you are bearish, a spread with strikes below the underlying will perform better than strikes above the underlying - but it doesn't matter whether the spread is made up of Puts or Calls.
Yup you're right. I only highlighted one portion, but McMillan says pretty much the same thing... a Bear Put spread outperforms short-term if stock goes quickly in your favor but the end results are basically the same. He also says that there is a lower chance of your short leg being exercised prior to profitability. The only perceptible advantage to the bear call spread is psychologically you get the money up front instead of when you are closing your position. I suppose that might make things better/worse depending on how the trader reacts to loss aversion.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,057 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,399
Thanks Received: 10,225
Again. It's all about whether strikes are above or below the underlying. The "Short Leg" has exactly the same probability of being exercised whether it's a bear put spread or a bear call spread as long as the spread has the same strikes. Remember C - P = F
Agreed. So the trader who wants to sell the 325/350 call spread rather than buy the 325/350 put spread is probably giving up edge. "EDGE". The Almighy "EDGE" everybody talks about. Unfortunately you as a retail trader are unable to take advantage of this "EDGE" but the market makers do, and they love it! So yes market makers make money from retail's miss conceived psychology!
Also lets get technical - and teleport to a Futures only world. Things may work the same in the equities world but that's not my area of knowledge. In the futures world, the minimum tick decreases as the total premium decreases. So going back to my example of TSLA trading 375 (which obviously isn't options on futures) and the 325/350 bear spread. If we say the put spread is 'worth' approximately 5 then by arbitrage principles the 325/350 call spread has to be worth approximately 20. So in options on futures world (again TSLA isn't in this world), the tick size will probably be less for the 325/350 put spread than it is for the 325/350 call spread. Again this is an "EDGE" that retail traders give up that market makers are happy to take.
Going to lose some (paper) profits this morning as the markets are gapping higher. If the markets rally beyond the open, I might have to close out some positions.
I will use SPY as my canary in the coal mine. I have circled the anticipated open and it is flush against a key price area (circle signifies premarket price). If it breaks and holds above the line, I will tighten/exit my short positions.
To avoid being overly bearish, I also have some long trades set to go live depending on price action. I'm still bearish on the markets though, so I will use tight stops so that they don't have them enough rope to hang themselves.
On the other hand, if the markets struggle to move higher, I might add to my SPY position and maybe a select few other spots (fade the Oil bounce?). I'm working on adding to winners. So far it has never worked lol but all it takes is one good trade to give me a bit of confidence in it and figure out how to tweak it.