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On the one hand, there are good reasons to believe that the lows are in for corn. On the other hand, it would be very early in the year. Anyway, I foresee no large movements in the corn price for the next couple of weeks, and, thus, do not hold a position.
On Sunday, there will be a meeting between representatives of the US and China. Depending on the outcome, corn price might e strong or weak.
Specs have officially covered their shorts in corn and are now marginally long. I have, as of this morning, taken more profits on my position but still have one little contract left, which I'll hold onto for just a bit longer as the daily and weekly trend remains higher.
Meanwhile, specs are getting quite long soybeans, which might be setting up a tradable positioning imbalance going into the harvest. Not doing anything yet, but watching it a bit more closely for potential opportunties on the short side.
Specs are now pretty long corn, and I am officially flat. I profited on my swing positions but the story has played out. On to the next trade...
Could it be beans? Specs and managed money are very long, which may provide an opportunity on the short side, but I haven't done anything yet and will allow the price action and broader supply / demand considerations to inform my decision. We will see...
My current trades in the in the grains are the KWH-WH, which I entered and exited several times in more than a year. I took profits on 25 % at 61.25 a couple of days ago.
And the CH-WH, which I entered a few days ago at -188. The CH-WH is a seasonal trade, recommended by MRCI from early October until end of the year. S&D data looks to support this trade in 2020, COT data also looks a bit favourable.
Officially short beans. One contract Started as a scalp from 1061.25 and will manage risk fairly tightly (because that's how I roll) but may give it a little more room to run, and may also add, depending on how things play out today.
Like my corn trade earlier this year, the rationale is informed primarily by positioning, sentiment, and overall price action.
On the 30 minute chart (above) we could have the makings of a failed high / bull trap.
Again, we'll see how this plays out throughout the session but for now I like it.
After being stopped out quickly on my CH-WH spread, my only position in the grains is the KWH-WH. I took profit on 25 % just above 60 c, and will take profit on the next 25 % above 50 c.
Today at 11 am (Chicago Time) or 6 pm (Central European Time) USDA will pubaccordingly.lish its monthly report. I suggest to keep position sizes moderate.