well indexes seem ok

really up to the fx, commodities and yields

carries still in trend at least

fx is still stuck but decent response save commodities

esp gold but that last blip could be revisited

crypto is even crazier right now

the behavior seems like resistance testing

since carries are still moving

fx, vol, yield digesting

//

nikkei is rough, china leading

then dow w/ iwm, mag7 sidelined

not sure what to make of commodities

vol in non-existent doldrums

many instruments are ranged

trends still maintained however

//

nvda being down is a drag for indexes

perhaps a challenge of support

unsure since tip of iceberg

eur/jpy is confirming more and leading vs aud/jpy

vol has been pressing, bonds complacent

some influence from nvda into weds

//

dollar is something to watch

the swiss equivalent failed resistance

likewise brent has also challenged support

//

huge asterisk literally huge ass + risk

could possibly develop due to covid era issues

the previous long term breaks could call for retests

//

cash might be a good spot since metals priced already

continuing the observation of saturation

aud/jpy side ramped hard this quarter

euro side has been less extreme

//

the nikkei is also resting as the yen dips more

similar with the bond drip fighting inflation

the dollar seems at a reasonable level

//

tips also seem content hovering as a safety

tips will payout an inflation adjusted principal at term

the minimum payout is always this initial face value, avoiding deflation

//

tips have technically deflated in price making this asset cheaper to own

while maintaining the risk-free nature of conserving principal

essentially cash-plus in the face of inflationary pressure

nvda is prob fine just not sure if they carry the mag7 alone

aapl has some recovery googl too is strong

but tsla is just stuck in range

//

msft is trying to catch up too

maybe amzn can also ignite

nvda can provide the spark

cash is ok still, nvda cannot carry or pull enough

around half the mag7 is dragging

resistance mostly

//

overall still ok but the pull back to Q4 '23 levels might be better

approx -15% draw where sp/ndx favored vs dia iwm, global

would pare up lagging sectors and provide better support

semis banked today including nvda, ai etc

energy trying to find a base as well

fx attempt vs dollar not enough

some relief from mag7 to patch the semi rout

dollar strength continues to face inflation

energy demand from ai and crypto

//

there must be some kind of diminishing return for these ai queries

vs

normal searches.. same for mining vs paper