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June 17th, 2024, 12:32 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
so the good sign is that forward looking support is activated
seasonality and likely the case for crude as well
bonds are also slightly supported only a bit
//
eye on crypto and smaller caps for this
mag7 is pushing via mgk less so vgk
carries responding aud over eur jpy
June 20th, 2024, 01:49 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
so the overshoot will play well with expiry
crude is helping indexes like dia slightly
and then resolution into quarter end
//
euro region is lagging with non mag7
while mag7 tech needs to break out
spy is decent mix but overshot
//
is anything strangely crypto is better behaved
carries also overshot with eur/jpy lagging
dollar attempts at breakout though ranged
June 20th, 2024, 05:28 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
different topic, but in the case schiller indexes
range bound pricing, some due to lack of supply, incentives to buy
the technical aspect is that there is convergence / flattening toward FY2025
//
the new builds and supply has already declined post covid though only a minor slice of inventory
and we saw that home building activity has also slowed which would further decrease supply
the boom bust is more evident in places like vegas where they extend and contract quickly
//
the hard cap from yields is also there along with some negative economic pressure
so the backdrop of a heavy asset class and gov debt are providing tough tailwinds
inflation can prop pricing but forced selling could finally trigger supply release
June 21st, 2024, 04:00 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
still some high gamma , some say that dark pools react inversely w/ gamma
regardless, hopefully unregardedly, we go into end of the quarter flows
also in crypto ether with some strength and the coin still dipping
//
then next month another nfp but separated by the 4th
eur region still lagging, nkd consolidating, china trying
hoping energy stays tame and ranged, w/ crude push
June 24th, 2024, 02:36 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
crypto dunk is contained, looking at nvda, mstr and main coins
satellite semis like tsm and asml also affected
financial sector via xlf looks okay esp. v
//
ibb biotech seems ok w/ alny and vrtx
with energy rising, looking good for dia
costs to support crypto may be a factor
June 27th, 2024, 11:13 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
negative data but technically we are pushing at higher levels
the exception is bonds, which are seeking guidance
so, saturation except the alternative in yields
//
some other factors pointing to dollar at high range
the yen is at a very low area trying to hold support
metals crypto pushed leaving energy commodities
//
gamma still high so just holding on really
another worrisome possibility is energy rising
energy hungry crypto / AI are vulnerable, inflation, etc.
Last Updated on June 27, 2024