high bar into earnings season

priced to perfection needs to one up further

better strategy maybe to look into lower valuations

the non-ridiculous p/e earnings seem ok

which also feeds into the dow and small caps

energy lower, yields too how currency reacts unsure

vix is either giving room for further drip

or avoiding a breach of support

nail in the coffin otherwise

//

this means a sort of frustrating range

unless there is some event risk

which would trigger fallout

//

looking at the major indices

would feed into a further blowoff

or smallish dip to avoid an avalanche

//

the macro setup / pricing favors bonds

cut anticipation weakening the dollar

barring higher energy, RB lower

//

hard to balance inflation and other motivators

possible to reflate and delay further hikes

since inflation is the primary goal unfort.

with things running off fumes

best to lean towards value which is sparse

so cash is the reluctant direction even vs crypto

some impactful earnings coming up

energy dipping, maybe ng is ahead

dollar strength cluing into bonds

//

platinum pricing is favored over palladium

used for for hybrid catalysts due to low temp

also known for hydrogen fuel cells in larger rigs

policy changes are TBD, maybe set bar low

guidance now factors unknowns of election year

limited upside even w/ surprise would maintain level

//

to offset a protectionist tariff, import currencies weaken

meaning the dollar strengthens vs basket, fending inflation

trimming excess spend, lowering taxation to stimulate vs rates

//

engaging global economic players and further domestic chip dev

young entrepreneurs could benefit from incentives for smaller corps

less trickle down but something to encourage organic base level growth

//

someone who understands the levers to pull to amplify domestic strengths

for tsla just not the st buy zone but welcome to dip ~200s

everyone in the ev ecosystem is really dependent on tsla

they monopolize and control pricing as first to product

//

physical platinum in bars has a wide spread

above ground market is miniscule vs bullion

risk of someone cornering the market

//

if somehow ev batteries incorporate platinum

this might trigger a scramble for resources (outside russia)

hydrogen fuel cells for larger cargo are also in stalled dev

//

unless some tail risk arises, this quarter seems contained

w/ vol in high areas of the range the tell would be extremes

past normal resistance zones and creep into the higher teens

going through the earnings this week on estimize focusing on the kpi highlighted companies (@turbinecity)

overall majority look OK and are not extremely positioned but some mag7 are affected

would be a more of a pausing week since things seem capped overall

//

in the habit of entering only for kpis that seem overall advantageous

even then a subset are not positioned as longer term holds

so any post earnings moves would be derivative based

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also due to nature of EOM weds, august is more open

so even with aapl and intc thurs after mkt

there might be a return to trend

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so a pause to reposition

energy and commodities bumped with stronger yen

carry crosses are not following the retrace higher

some rate expectations w/ weaker currency

the error rate on earnings is higher with optimistic bias

overall would change to more pessimistic view

vol outside range, energy and carry watch