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But you have to admit. If someone can lose a $10,000 account tin a day, buying and selling Crude Oil Futures and losing hundreds of dollars a trade, he could also be making hundreds of dollars a trade and double his account in the same time period. The "unrealistic" part that most people seem to be talking about is the fact that no one is THAT GOOD, and because people are that good then it isn't possible. Well, sooner or later someone is going to come along and be that good. It is possible to run a $10,000 up to a million, if you know what you're doing. The vast majority of people don't, so they're never going to do it. That's where statistics come in about the retail trader. They haven't the slightest idea of what they're doing so they end up losing most of what they put into the market. Sooner or later someone is going to figure it out and run up the account without throwing it all away.
I can tell you this: I have learned more in the last 2 days just starting at the chart then I ever did in a financial class. I'm at the point now where I don't even consider putting on a trade unless I like the setup. Maybe this is what people are talking about when they say "you can't make money every day", because if you don't like the setup the you don't trade. Well if this is the case, then I have learned fast, but I will also look at other instruments to trade so that there will always be a day to make money.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
That's some pretty solid advise. Not only are you competing against yourself but also the competition.
I also like you bit about natural impulses. I began trading a micro-lot to see how it felt. Heart started racing, and I realized how useless it was to be in an emotional state, and tried hard to suppress it. It's now day 2 and I don't feel anything anymore. There is no fear, greed, or stress. It's just numbers.
I began looking at risk/reward and money in terms of "units". Now I'm not risking $40 per trade on NQ, but one "unit". I was trading a full sized contract yesterday (but the size was too big and I scaled down in order to learn this properly and not blow my account). Thinking in terms of units has separated my mind from my money, and now it's become a game of sorts, where I'm trying to increase my "score" (current capital in my brokerage account) and have to do it in multiples of units that I'm risking. Am I willing to risk 1 unit to make 3, 4, or 5? This seems to work better than thinking in terms of dollars. Now I can scale my size and not have to worry about the size I'm trading, since the risk parameters are checking out.
I'm learning a lot and fast. Sooner or later I'm going to get it. I've already gotten over the psychology, now I'm just looking for a profitable strategy that can be used on a daily basis to treat that bjtch of a market like an ATM.
Now let me ask you, was it worth it? Are you now making enough money to justify the years spent? Is this something that you can see yourself doing for years and scaling upwards to make potentially millions of dollars? Is this in the realm of possibility?
I'm glad you're there man. Keep at it and don't quit.
Since you are a computer engineer and have been programming for a while, you have an edge over others. My philosophy has always been that I need to be able to articulate in plain language my reasons for entering and exiting a trade. if I can articulate my reasons, then I can program it and test it on historical data. If I cannot prove my reasons to trade are consistently profitable historically, I wont trade it. I will not trade anything that does not have a documented edge. Even then, not all of the systems that are profitable historically, will make money when trading live.
Point is, for programmers, it is easier to enter this field IMO. Trading requires homework and planning. Programming, automates that. All of the homework and planning is taken care of when you spend days/weeks looking at the data and charts for repeating patterns, then programming those patterns and evaluating results. When you find something that has historically proven to be profitable, homework is done. Its all about execution then.
Also, something else that gives you and edge over others is that you were in the Army so you must be able to discipline your mind easier than others. This is what can help you execute flawlessly. This is an extremely important attribute of a successful trader. Almost 30% of the most successful traders I know are ex-Armed forces.
Trust me kid, I've watched the brightest among us try for years and still fail.
If you are still relatively young and going to school for finance is a viable opportunity then it would absolutely be more profitable to get a degree in finance or quant finance and work in investment banking. If you love doing work you hate for the money then investment banking is definitely the place for you lol.
Zoom out a bit, and you'll find far more egregious examples of a lack of intelligence than this. If only "how to wear a mask properly" was the biggest lesson learned, it would be incredible.
However, your assertion that "people aren't smart," while absolutely true, doesn't translate well to success in stocks. You'd probably consider Isaac Newton to be a pretty smart guy. Yet look at his own foray into the stock market to see that a once-in-a-century kind of intelligence can't guarantee success. Markets are sometimes full of herds of absolute morons (see apes and WSB). But, you can't stand in their way. You actually have to follow the herd in order to profit. You need these people to help your position, in order to be successful. That's true on a short term time frame and longer term.
It's one reason why engineers and scientists often make terrible traders (I'm an engineer, and it works against me when trading). There is no repeatable pattern which always works. It always changes.
I've taken some liberties and lied just a bit: actually, the big money which moves markets often have very good logic and reason behind it. Often, if you do some second order thinking, you'll see that what they're doing makes sense. Lows of the year made the morning of the Russia invasion of Ukraine. 10% rally in a week starting before the first (albeit minor 25bps) rate hike in years. On the surface, none of it makes sense. But of course, you can't expect it to. Easy money is only easy to the very fast and very early, neither of which a retail trader can be (speed of light issues at play here). Stocks dropping on war is so obvious, that it almost can't happen that way. Understanding it that way, it's more clear why the 2022 low has been on Feb 24. Find the driver, apply some second/third order logic to things, and only then does anything make sense. And even then, it's still just annoying, but it is how it is.
So, you kind of have to take traditional logic and throw it out the window. If you can think this way, you stand a chance. Markets are so fascinating. You have to be strategic enough to think about things from the perspective of a gambler/strategist, but then truly dumb enough to follow the rest of the herd with what's working. You can't really be in the middle--common sense logic. Fascinating stuff, to be sure.
I respect your go-getter attitude, and I certainly won't be the one to tell you that you can't do something. Give it a try with money you don't mind losing, get ready to put your "humble" hat on, and see how it works. Have fun in the process, and don't tie your success or failure to anything else in life. Best of luck!
There's a lot you put into this post, mostly anger and venting about yourself, but also your confidence, which is good and which you'll need.
But two things:
1. You've been cautioned once about language. The is the last time you will get one. I've been in the Army too, a long time ago. I know how they talk there. This is not there. Get over it.
2. You've got this aggressive, aggrieved attitude and are venting at people who want to help you and are trying to, not trying to tell you that you will fail. You are telling people, some of whom have been successful at this for a very long time, that they don't understand what you know, and that they need help. These are professionals in the business that you say you want to get into. They have done nothing to you, and you have no beef with them. Get over this too.
I've deleted your post for the language. As for the attitude, we expect civility and professionalism here, and have no tolerance for repeated rudeness. If you aren't willing to conduct yourself that way, then you will be banned. It's a simple standard.
Calm down, get over whatever is making you angry, learn the craft. But no more insulting the people who try to help you, even if you think they are not helping and even if you think they are wrong. Get over yourself and just learn what you need to and do the job.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
I am on my about my 5th year and still not profitable either.
My recommendation : I have no recommendation, because I am not consistent profitable yet. And it should be a sin to give advice to people how to make money trading if I make no money trading. I will not even offer you good luck, because that is giving advice.
I just wanted to share my length of time so far.
Now if you want my recommendation and why I am still not profitable, I will tell you my opinions and hope it helps you.