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Yes, I agree. Prices could move up in the next couple of days. The soybean crop is far away from being made, and it is still a weather market. The figure for harvested acres of spring wheat will be adjusted in the next crop report.
But I do not think lows are in - it might be a short trade. Thus, I do not intend to enter short put options in the near future. If I do something I might buy outright futures or spreads for a quick move.
I do not intend to sell corn calls at current levels.
The seasonal chart is an average over the most recent 5 or 15 or 30 years. If you look at it more closely you find that in most years since 2007 with CZ below 450 in August the annual low for this future is in late August (2016) or early September (2007, 2009, 2010, 2015) with the only exception being 2014.
The seasonal chart for the most recent 10 years is strongly influenced by the years showing annual highs of more than 750 (2008, 2011, 2012), which show a later seasonal low.
Probably this train has left the station without me, and my next trade will be to the long side.
Chart, CoT, seasonality and the discussion we had some days ago suggest to me that a rise in prices may be more probable, or at least a decline should be limited.
If it rises a bit I will consider making a strangle of it.