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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,059 since Dec 2013
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Just eye-balling that chart it looks like the correlation between "Managed Money" & "Price" is very high, except for the last $40 of this year's $60 puke.
Yep. Almost the same for every other major commodity.
Here's another chart of Managed Money expressed as their percent long of their total of longs and shorts (spread trades are not included in these charts). I like this one better.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,059 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,410
Thanks Received: 10,226
I think that's a function of refinery maintenance that normally happens in Mar/Apr/early May.
This year maintenance has been lower than normal though, as illustrated by the unseasonably high refinery runs numbers.
As such I'm not sure we'll see as large a drop in stocks due to increased runs - runs are already at or close to their peak - over the last 4 weeks runs are approx 250,000 bbl/day higher than last year, and only approx 300,000 bbl/day below historic highs which were set last Jul & Aug.
FundamentalAnalytics.com have a great chart showing this but unfortunately the one on their website is 6 weeks out of date. https://www.fundamentalanalytics.com/petroleum/charts/crude-runs-smoothed.jpg
If you keep this year (black) 250-300k higher than last year (red) you'll get the picture of where we are though.