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This Friday is not one in line with the others - as we see a prolonged weekend.
Normally on a Monday money is flowing into the markets and taken out on Fridays.
Now this weekend we do have 3 days (in the risk) instead of the normal 2.
So traders will not be pushing this Friday too much. And we have still not seen the gap
being closed...
Hi,
Thank you for your valueable input/insights.
I'm actually aware of that info (from your journal and also spoke about it). In the meanwhile I did the work to identify these days for 2010-2021, but haven't done the homework yet to implement this. It's quite a work as I would need to review all the setups that I have now (to exclude these specific days).
I'm wondering, do you also consider the US holidays (on Mondays, like Martin Luther King Day, Presidents day, Memorial day, ...) as a 'risk' day like you describe in your message, or do you handle these differently?
Thanks
Deetee
edit 22-5 8:00: For now I will just check the long weekends, and leave the current setups as they are until I have time to review them (in July, calm month and I can include Q2 2021 in the data)
Day after Pentecost Monday.
10:00am IFO numbers.
The IB is short. There is an up gap.
DAX Long trade
Entry 9:30 @ 15538
Exit 10:00 @ 15541
SL 46 pts
Result 3 pts
Historical results with this setup:
130 pts (14 trades/win% 71%)
Maybe there will be a 2nd trade today.
Let's see
edit 10:12: No 2nd trade. Only with a good short 10:00-10:30 bar my files gave a nice trade. The best trade with a long 10:00-10:30 bar would bring 5 points profit per trade, which is not enough for a trade
Looking at Memorial day (excluding the ones that were on the same day as IFO announcement & 2nd Pentecost day), only 8 occurrences remain. 7 of these had a long IB, and all 7 had a winning trade. So, if today the IB is long (at least about 10 points), then I’ll take a short trade at 9:30.
Looking at ‘1st day of the month’ data on Tuesdays, there are only 8 occurrences. With the IB long, a short trade gives the best result. I’m not sure if I should look only at the Tuesdays, or that ‘1st day of the month’ data doesn’t need to be filtered on the weekday. If I don’t, the long trades are looking better.
If I ignore ‘1st day of the month’ totally, then also the long trade looks best (9:30-11:00).
First I will have to do some homework before knowing what to do on the ‘1st day of the month’.