Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
One the positive side, even though I currently am struggling with it, I do see the market respond to it better than anything I have watched up to this point. NPOC and VWAP especially.
Absolutely. I'm amazed how I often I see price respond to those areas of acceptance---often getting rejected immediately or congesting for awhile. Yesterday the ES stopped to the tick at a NVPOC to conclude that ridiculous mini-crash.
I reread my first comment, and I am now nervous I was careless with the language I used. By no means was I trying to insinuate you don't observe market context. I was only suggesting the usefulness of using market profile reference points in conjunction with that context. Hopefully it came across correctly the first time, and I'm just paranoid !
Going back over it, I guess the question was, what made it a 6 day balance instead of a 7 day? I was viewing that as being the unfair high of that entire grouping. It was wrong, but why?
It/you were not wrong--there is no right or wrong, and that's an important point I think. You could say that your view did not align with the market's, but it won't always, so it's not a matter of your view being wrong, it just did not coincide with today's market activity.
Of those 7 profiles in that group, three of them (including the last 2 before today) have almost the same high, and the last two days prior to today had almost the same range, with the last day before today being an inside day.
I do not have this setup up, but what if you merge those 7 profiles (prior to today)--what does it look like?
I'd do what Josh suggested and create a micro-composite of those seven profiles. I didn't pull up CL on my charts, but (just at first glance) it looks as if you may have a nice Gaussian distribution(ish) structure there with excess at either end.
@josh, by no means am I disagreeing with you, but perhaps you could clarify your previous post for me?
I've always thought in terms of definitive "right" or "wrong" when it comes to trading decisions. If I initiate a trade and get stopped out, my analysis of the market, (no matter what variation of analysis I performed) was clearly incorrect. Or maybe only the timing was off... either way something was incorrect.
My point, I think (it's late), is simply this: we are shown to have been right or wrong, in retrospect only. A trading decision or analysis works out to be "right" or "wrong," but that does not automatically make it a decision that we should not have taken. For example, selling what we perceive as an unfair high is perhaps a high probability play, over a large data set, and that does not make it a "wrong" thing to do, just because it does not work on one particular day. Perhaps we can learn from this and work on our analysis for the future, but that does not mean that the idea itself was in some way "bad" necessarily (though in some cases, I think a case can be made for this). This is the general idea I think I had in my head when I wrote this.