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Overall I feel there were many trades and opportunities passed that fit my edge. Instead of trying to know what was going to happen I need to take these trades and let the probabilities play out. It seems my expectancy for now is pretty consistent, so if the numbers stay consistent more opportunities equates to more profit all else being equal. I still find myself trading not to lose which guarantees losses. Many trades this week where I was not wrong on the trade idea or context and took losses. I was trying to give my trades a little more room to work as can be seen in a slightly larger average loss. This may be statistically insignificant over a small sample but I was mindful of the concept of where am I wrong on the trade this week. I will continue to study hard, further ingrain* the concepts, and continue to refine my edge and feel for the market. I will be going live on Tuesday after the holiday. I am also planning to do a monthly recap for May sometime this week. That to follow
Missed a few fills, also had a technical issue on my first trade. I tried to take a long at 5:27 and I wasn't filled, plenty of contracts traded at price so didn't understand why I wasn't filled. I noticed later that my charting was delayed so I had to renew my NYMEX feed. That trade went to target for +25. Then a few other missed fills for some nice winners, I definitely have to be a little more aggressive with my entries. Feeling very good about my read, been working a lot on my mental preparation and mindset. Skies the limit, very excited for what's coming next. 20 ticks a day, 480k!
Software crashed again for my live trade journal so just had to do a recap. Happy with my read and feel, but was so tired I could barely stay awake today and left around 10am. Market was inside range and value and light on volume. Still opportunities to be had.
Still struggling with trusting my edge. Knowing that at the end of the day it's still 50/50, and by not trusting the probabilities I disrupt my edge. There were two trades I should have taken based on my context read and valid setups, regardless of the outcome, which I am not going to talk about because it's irrelevant without taking the trades. Tomorrow I will execute without hesitation, without fear, and with excitement for the opportunities the market has to give.
+55 ticks LIVE trading one CL contract
Total trades: 12 Win Rate: 62.5%
Wins: 5 Total: +77 Ave win: 15.4
Losses: 3 Total: -24 Ave loss: 8
4 BEs: +2
First week trading back live in over two years. Been on demo since March 19th. Finished with a solid +55 week with a lot of room for improvement and potential for upside. If anything I think I traded more cautiously than normal, which had the potential of affecting my edge. This is definitely reflected in my numbers and my number of trades. A win rate higher than before on demo as well, an average winner slightly smaller, over a very small sample size and not statistically significant. Next week I will focus on taking all the trades I see as potential opportunities while being mindful that I have no idea what trades will or will not work out. Knowing that my edge typically has resulted in more losses than wins but with a positive expectancy. This gives me the confidence to execute my edge without hesitation and to let the probabilities play out.
the mciro oil contracts will be available soon so i would trade very very conservative and they get here. if you just now back at it live again try and make it long enough to really work thos micros and then move back to the CL. nice work ups. if im tired or dozing off then i go to sleep and come back to the screen when i wake up. i made fun of people who talked about trader naps up until i started taking some and realized how beneficial it was to get away from the screens and get some sleep.
so where is your account total right now as far as profit and loss NET? you are up 550 for your 1st week?
net gain or loss divided by / total contracts traded.
my reason for asking this question is that you can start to use this number for a lot of things with your trading. your expectancy should be used to run all kinds of stats.. you can even narrow down your expectance to time of day buckets say 1st hour 2md hour last hour. or days of the week. this way you can have real hard data on your trading. you can then get standard dev and variance on it as well all of which can help you going forward however a word of caution. if you are using discretion which most of us are including me then a few bad discretionary trades will skew all of this data and 9 x out of 10 these outliers in your P and L will be due to a bad discretionary trade and this is the difference between machine algo trading and humans. I just want to see everyone puttin gin all this time and energy succeed!! keep up the good hard fight and work!