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Have you looked at first day of the month excluding all other filters? If there's any relevance to this calendar date then perhaps removing other variables from your analysis could reveal something.
For example, what if the large wage payment processing companies in Germany pay direct deposits on the last day of the month, and the employee retirement funds invest their monthly contributions on the following business day. Under such a scenario you might see a slight upward bias in the DAX on the first of the month. But what if the last day of the month falls on a weekend? Do contributions then get pushed back by a day? I personally have no idea, just suggesting potential avenues of exploration, as I have learned some worthwhile tidbits by applying similar analysis to other asset classes.
Anyway your work so far looks good. Wishing you safe travels and continued progress.
Today the IB is short, there is no gap and IB closed inside prior day HL range.
For a long IB, there was a nice trade (long 10:00-11:30 SL45). Even though the IB turned short just a few minutes before 9:30 (and might prepared for a nice entry at 10:00), rules are rules, so, no trade.
Hi @Schnook, thanks for your message. Yeah, I did shortly but I wasn't well prepared; didn't know what to do. Will work on this for next time. You are right, it doesn't matter which day of the week it is, it is the first day of the month, that's key.
Thank you. I have a good feeling about the system. Every day I hope for a good setup, but even if I don't trade, like today, it kind of also feels like winning, as there is no loosing
Well - we are all traders: Means looking for more points on positive trades than with negative ones.
Seeing a setup that seems ok for a winner then we must go for it - yes?
If we are not sure - then we just stay at the sidelines.
Today the IB is short, there is no gap and the IB closed inside prior day HL range.
Volume is very low, it seems like some German states have a holiday. Anyway:
DAX Long trade
Entry 10:00 @ 15568
Exit 10:30 @ 15576
SL 41 pts
Result 8 pts
Historical results with this setup:
251 pts (15 trades/win% 87%)
Today the IB turned long, there is no gap and the IB closed inside prior day HL range.
DAX Short trade
Entry 9:30 @ 15679
Exit 10:30 @ 15668
SL 33 pts
Result 11 pts
Historical results with this setup:
648 pts (50 trades/win% 64%)
Let’s see
Edit 10:31: I didn’t like how the IB developed, going to prior day low and back to above the open, and then to trade on an IB long setup, but I’m glad I followed the setup. My analyses don’t look at how the IB developed, so why should I, or I mean, I wouldn’t really know how.