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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
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Just to clarify... I didn't understand his data so sent him a private message to discuss rather than hash it out here in front of everybody. It turns out the data in the first chart is Total Crude Stocks in the US including the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve ("SPR"). No lecturing involved I promise.
As I told privately, I really appreciate his input. Lecture was probably not the best term though. My english is still a little rough. (That's my excuse for everything).
But yes, big difference when you add the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. For commercial purposes is best to leave out of the equation.
Yes seasonally inventory usually peaks in Nov. But last year it peaked at Christmas.
It is extremely rare for inventory to peak higher in Nov than the Apr-May peak. But 2 more weeks like the last two will do it. And I doubt the peak will be in 2 weeks.
I'm understanding what you put forth earlier, again thank you
From what research I've done it seems there are differences between option calendar's/ butterfly's and using futures with the same strategy.
The way I used calendars (I understand there's different ways/ approach) sell the front month calls or puts and buy out in the future at the same strike price. Of course depending on time decay, objective etc the front month could be two months out or more.
As of today I would consider sell NOV, buy DEC or sell DEC buy FEB etc. For butterfly's I would go to NOV buy one, sell two, buy one ie calls in SPY +1 203.5 -2 202.5 +1 201.5 (ATM call butterfly.)
In the example/ scenario you gave for a calendar in /CL it would be buy JAN sell FEB, MAR, APR etc
Anyway, thanks for the help and getting my gears turning et al
-William
EDIT
I did a little more research into a futures Butterfly and this is an example I came across
+ JUN 2010, -2 DEC 2010, + JUN 2011
Using this equation for /CL and CME settlement prices from 10-21-15
It seems that CL does not have the same magnitude of response to the easing announcements from ECB (yesterday) and China ( this morning) like the stock markets.