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Thanks for posting this PW. Since Jan 2, the ES has had ridiculously small ranges averaging under 10 handles. We have not had a solid trend day so far in January, so I try to keep my ammo dry during these slow times so that when the market has actual conviction off the open, I can load up. The only thing worse than low volatility and slow days is to trade those and lose money. On a 30 tick day for example, it can be demoralizing to look back and have actually lost money (and have been bored doing it). I encourage traders to have some metric to determine in the first 5 to 15 minutes what the volatility expectations are for the market they are trading. Knowing the range and volume is a good starting place.
I had a hard time maintaining a long trading bias. But I managed to suppress the short ideas and stay long. Albeit not very well. Still finished in the green nicely. I forgot I was planing on adding another lot to my initial entry today and traded singles up to the last trade then remembered today was add day, so last trade was two lots. Overall, I am pleased with the day from a dollar standpoint but the execution could have been better.
Cheers
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I got suckered into a short this morning AFTER a higher high had been put in. The higher high should have taken me off shorts but for some reason, it breaking the support level made me think shorts. Never mind the lower high lower low combo I normally rely on was not put in. It was a mistake in reading price action.
By the time I figured out I wanted to be long, I was in the position of reversing further away from the level than I would ordinarily like. I took it anyway. And then waited a LONG time. 45 minutes actually before the silly thing was in profit. And then I disregarded my own advice from a few days ago about taking more conservative profits. that trade went positive then negative and then positive again. I finally moved the stop to BE and thats what I got. At one time it was almost +30 ticks of profit.
I was planning on that being it but saw a short I thought would work out. It went 40 ticks and I got 20 or 21 ticks.
Poor trade management today netted me -$80 on two trades that should have netted me $1200 before deducting the failed short from earlier.
Then the trade of the day was the long at the end but I was involved in my other project by then and couldn't really trade.
I need to make sure next week to take smaller profit targets until volatility comes back.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
OVX oil volatility is lowest since 2008. That's all the further I could go back. Markets taking a rest or going to sleep?
It might have more impact to come? It is certainly odd, though.
There will always be volatility; markets are cyclical, and for months you may see low volatility, and then it will come back, then get quiet again, etc. The important thing is to adjust accordingly.