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I think I am in agreement with you on all points. I will not last much longer on the current path I am on, especially trading the ES. I have to change my approach because I can not afford to lose $2K a month. Also, I need to work on the size of my winners and losing trades because its impossible to achieve a 90% win rate. Maybe I can shoot for a 1:1 risk reward and a 60% win rate or something. I am continuing to trade 1 contract in the MES, so I can risk less than trading the ES. Thank you for your concern.
I think this is much more achievable and a much more realistic approach.
A 90% win-rate is unbearably difficult. And even if you can do it, you're still going to have 3 losers within 4 or 5 consecutive trades at some point, which is hard to handle. On the other hand, I strongly disagree with the widespead view that you should always aim for a minimum of 1:2.
At the moment, I normally aim for 1:1.33, myself (i.e. the target is normally one-and-a-third times the initial SL distance) but I know people trading 1:1 steadily and successfully with win-rates about 60% or a fraction higher.
Exactly, when I was trading the ES I would go for a risk:reward of 10:1 trying to go for a 90% when rate. I would hold a loss until it hit my daily loss limit of $200 and I would take an average of 2 ticks profit. Stepping back and looking at what I was doing I realize I was flirting with disaster and that was in a slow market. In a fast market my stop could have been triggered in a matter of seconds. Now I am implementing a risk:reward of about 2:1 and shooting for a +60% win rate in the MES market. I like to keep my reward smaller than my risk because I try to allow the volatility to trigger my take profit price. For instance, in the MES market I shoot for 8-12 ticks of profit and risk maybe like 20 ticks.
ES Trade 1
Long @1:35pm
Entry 3978.75
Exit 3978
Result -$37.50
ES Trade 2
Long @1:37pm EST
Entry 3978.50
Exit 3979
Result +$25.00
ES Trade 3
Long @2:01pm EST
Entry 3976.25
Exit 3976.50
Result +$12.50
ES Trade 4
Long @2:29pm EST
Entry 3978
Exit 3978.25
Result +$12.50
ES Trade 5
Short @2:47pm EST
Entry 3973.50
Exit 3973.25
Result +$12.50
MCL Trade 6
Short 3:19pm EST
Entry 67.87
Exit 67.77
Result +$10.00
ES Trade 7
Short @3:53pm EST
Entry 3986.50
Exit 3986
Result +$25.00
Day Result +$60.00 (fees not included)
Strategy:
Write out my strategy
Dont trade if i'm not sure
Exit losses Take a break after a loss, at least 30 minutes
Losses are part of the game and I need to learn to handle a loss better
Back to the MES
Strategy: BLASH(buy lows and sell highs) Other than that continuing to gamble and trade for my pure enjoyment knowing my profits can be taken away at a moment. Also continuing to work on risk management and exiting a loss gracefully.