possible lower high is a low volume setup for an extension

another lower low which breaches mid term support

vix was quelled by reverting but for only a while

forced dampening by flushing out carries using jpy crosses

the weak dollar makes the case for ex-us type instruments

rate cut expectations with bonds poised at higher bands

looking for a revisit within the range, range being key

lots of frontrunning from the jobs data earlier in the month

mostly due to vix breaching relatively high levels from jpy issues

some signs that yields overcut in anticipatory breakout

though a front run is necessary in light of recent data

which makes the job later of adjusting rates easier

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so in some ways, the BoJ did a pre-emptive favor

also for short term traders since vvix is higher

flinging around though the overall remains

the second half of 2024 seems like a polishing step

we had mar-apr dip in reaction to resistance

and the corresponding test and extension

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something around 500-ish spy was the earlier target

and for the most part volume has been nominally under avg

except for higher volumes near that expected level of 500-teen

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also there was a quick reversal at post covid lows

maybe established support by the pre-dip in 2018/19

but sharp and undeveloped in light of stimulus measures

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though that would be a -50% retrace which needs tail risk?

the other portion of this is the development of yields post 2022

desires to curb inflation also seem synonymous with controlled ranges

the composite is affected by financial, discretionary, utility and healthcare sectors that may be prone to disruptions from new tech

considering ai as a many eyes and ears type tech to be better informed and automate simpler decision trees

the backstop would likely be to those vulnerable sectors whereas previously tech took more a hit during downturns

some notes on upcoming that soxx is at high range longer term

also responded well testing mid term support giving optimism

ongoing election sentiment is honing into regulation / corp tax

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also energy bid which may be a proxy closer to november

currently primed for the longer move higher

gasoline is as well via uga

also seems like a leg is missing to really bring in a solid base

the action overall is more front run and reactionary

though one cannot depend on rationality right

apologies as my market hypothesis assumes things are baked into price more or less

looking at the price reaction near 100 for the nvda dip things look incomplete

if so the revisit under 100 would look at levels near 90 and 95 so using this we confirm activity in puts at strike sep/oct

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the result is a dulled out quarter but good for the next though guidance may deflate that possibly

also monday should refresh levels and provide more room to confirm throughout the week

tsm may also be exposed under 150s with similar volume though low delta shows this as hedge, diversified semis less so

not really looking macro just a bit of detail on nvda

the recent under avg volume and lack of support tests

make a little shaky near resistance seen also in tsm mfg

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plus the fed note that rate cuts are needed based on bad data

takes away the headwind for a favorable recovery situation

considering how much leeway there is for rates vs inflation