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I currently hold the following short options positions:
CH P3.80
High supply and high demand. I assume that soon the market will concentrate more on demand, and that the huge supply is more or less priced. Seasonally the price in March should be higher than the price in September. I intend to take profit at 25 %.
LCZ P117 / C117
Sold this spread at a little bit above 3, thus, it will make money if the contract ends between 114 and 120. I intend to take profit at 50 %, and exit at a close above 120 / below 114. No CoF Report until expiry, high demand should be compensated by high supply.
LHZ C60, LHG P58, LHM P76
Short term big supply, longterm growing problems in China. But I do not see many hogs exported to China before the December contract expires.
KCH P102.5/C145, KCH P105/C160
The high volatility some weeks ago made these strangles expensive. Large crop 2018/19 should limit upside, smaller crop 2019/2020 should limit downside. I intend to take profit at 25 % or roll into the May contract at 50 %.
CLZ19 P28/C92
Volatility is extremely high, and, thus, a longterm strangle looks interesting. I intend to take profit at 50 %.
SIH P13.5-P12.5
Extreme COT data suggest a long position in Silver. Target: 25 %.
GCJ P1150-P1100
Extreme COT data suggest a long position in Gold. Target: 25 %.
At my "targets" I usually place intraday stops. In case of changing fundamentals or unexpected price behaviour I might exit earlier.
Are you in for a tarriff tension relieve rally in Soy-related short Puts? Meal, oil and beans seem to have bottomed, poltical insecurity lessened and oil (ZL) still with decent IV.
I´d choose OZL May 19 25.0, but that´s only 12 OI and 60 USD premium. Any better ideas ...?
No, I currently do not sell options on Soybeans or its products. There is a major risk of a significant price move upwards or downwards, depending on the development of trade relations between China and the US. The current option prices do not justify taking this risk.
If I would do anything related to soybeans, I would buy ATM options.
But I prefer to stay on the sidelines - there are better trades around.
Hey myrrdin
Why would you go that far OTM in GC?
I have been trading GCJ and previous months at arround p1200-p1170.
Certainly mROI% is better.
Maybe you can tell me the advantages and disadvantages of close to money and far OTM PUT selling? given 120-130 DTE.
Thanks
Babak
There is an own thread on seasonal trades in the commodities section. The most recent entry is on 13th of June 2018. I would appreciate this thread seeing more active participation.
Iin my opinion, an account for trading futures should be of the order of magnitude of $ 50,000.