The CL Crude-analysis Thread

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Updated February 18, 2026

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

January 29th, 2016, 01:16 AM	#1471 (permalink)
Aufidius Seattle,WA Elite Member Experience: Advanced Platform: NinjaTrader , Multicharts and my own system Trading: Futures Posts: 294 since Feb 2015 Thanks Given: 19 Thanks Received: 459	Looking at the daily chart we seem to have a shooting star.

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January 31st, 2016, 04:46 PM	#1472 (permalink)
Aufidius Seattle,WA Elite Member Experience: Advanced Platform: NinjaTrader , Multicharts and my own system Trading: Futures Posts: 294 since Feb 2015 Thanks Given: 19 Thanks Received: 459	a look at weekly US Crude oil stocks (blue) and production (green) ... Crude oil prices weekly for the same time frame, not adjusted for inflation or anything...

February 3rd, 2016, 11:05 AM	#1473 (permalink)
Aufidius Seattle,WA Elite Member Experience: Advanced Platform: NinjaTrader , Multicharts and my own system Trading: Futures Posts: 294 since Feb 2015 Thanks Given: 19 Thanks Received: 459	Oil inventory up 7.8 Million analyst estimate was 4.8 .. Interesting quote from the EIA inventory report ".....Reserve) increased by 7.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 502.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years" and oil is UP a few dollars on the news ....not sure what to say about that one.

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February 3rd, 2016, 11:09 AM

#1474 (permalink)

ron99

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Aufidius

Oil inventory up 7.8 Million analyst estimate was 4.8 ..

Interesting quote from the EIA inventory report

".....Reserve) increased by 7.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 502.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years"

and oil is UP a few dollars on the news ....not sure what to say about that one.

Oil up because dollar index down big.

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February 3rd, 2016, 11:11 AM

#1475 (permalink)

madLyfe

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ron99

Oil up because dollar index down big.

also we did drop like .60 before short covering.

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

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February 3rd, 2016, 11:20 AM

#1476 (permalink)

SMCJB

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Aufidius

Interesting quote from the EIA inventory report

".....Reserve) increased by 7.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 502.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years"

For this time of year is significant. Crude stocks normally peak in the spring. Last year crude stocks increased 75 million barrels in the next 3 months, 2 years ago they increased 25 million barrels. In fact in the last 16 years I believe 2003 was the only year stocks didnt increase >20million barrels in the next 3 months.

Brent is now premium again in the front of the curve, with WTI only slightly premium for the second half of the year.

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February 3rd, 2016, 01:05 PM	#1477 (permalink)
WilleeMac Prospect, KY. USA Elite Member Experience: None Platform: Sierra Chart Broker: Infinity Trading: /CL Posts: 687 since Jan 2012 Thanks Given: 309 Thanks Received: 617	Interesting article on /CL, news etc over the past week or so (esp last THU.) Article states that Russia and Saudi Arabia are the two largest exporters. Also, I think Dudley's comments to MNI helped fan the short covering in /CL today as well as the dump in /ES. Who knows, folks are walking on pins and needles - waiting for someone/ thing (central bank) to say BOO. -William How Russia?s ?verbal intervention? triggered an oil market rebound - MarketWatch EDIT Link to Dudley and MNI comments https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-dudley-idUSKCN0VC1M6

February 4th, 2016, 12:33 AM	#1478 (permalink)
Aufidius Seattle,WA Elite Member Experience: Advanced Platform: NinjaTrader , Multicharts and my own system Trading: Futures Posts: 294 since Feb 2015 Thanks Given: 19 Thanks Received: 459	Is it just me or are the margin requirements the same now as they were when oil was $100?

February 4th, 2016, 07:57 AM

#1479 (permalink)

boze man

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Aufidius

Is it just me or are the margin requirements the same now as they were when oil was $100?

oil volatility is the highest its been since 2008-9

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February 4th, 2016, 09:11 AM

#1480 (permalink)

SMCJB

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Aufidius

Is it just me or are the margin requirements the same now as they were when oil was $100?

I believed they peaked in Feb'15 at $4900 maintenance but are now down to $4000.

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