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I run my own stats. I have a DB that has 322 weeks of data in it.
I use volume profiling and auction market theory for the basis of my market analysis. I have taken daily levels and took them to a larger time frame to create stats for what I trade on the weekly time frame
When the current week opens in the range of the previous week and is > the previous weeks' volume point of control (132 times), the current weeks' high is > the previous weeks' high (99 times), which equated to 75% of the time.
From there, I look at what those 99 weeks did in relation to the previous weeks levels. What is the most common extension past the previous weeks high? What is the edge of the first standard deviation? (68.4%)
Today, ES breached the previous weeks high and the HOD was 4 point higher than the previous week's high. Right now, unless something happens tomorrow, I will likely wait until Wednesday to initiate a trade. Tomorrow is likely to be balanced while participants await what the Fed has to say Wednesday.
Do you run stats or have a database?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Yes. I do some general stats using Excel at work. OptXpress has a probability calculator/graph but it is limited when looking at price. The next question is a viable source of price history data. What historical data vendor do you use?
I use Sierra Chart for charts and data from the TT - Fix adapter. TT stands for Trading Technologies. When I first started with SC/TT-Fix, I built my own ES contract by combining all of the historical contracts for ES and then adjusting each of them accordingly at their rollover dates.
From that point forward, every day adds a new day of data to the file. So, this file is mine that I've built and accumulated and goes back to April of 2006.
I started kicking around the notion of a weekly option selling strategy, or at least a net credit if there is a buy side, on the ES a few weeks back. Since the premiums on the calls can be a lot lower vs. the puts I started to think about selling the calls with 2 weeks to exp. and the puts with 1 week to exp. But, the puts may have to be a little close for that short amount of time left. I think the majority of people selling here are more adept to the 30, 40 DTE which I am part of also but if I could fine tune a method that is specific to one instrument such as the ES then I'd rather go that route....the brain churn continues......
This shows NG usage by electric generating plants is down significantly even though the weather was colder this year.
This shows that production was up.
First chart is not adjusted for leap year. The other one is adjusted.
This is why, especially when you include below normal temps in the SE next 14 days, which reduces electrical demand to run air conditioning, that I think there is a lid on NG prices. The only bullish number is that nuclear plants are down more than normal right now.