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Coffee had quite a rally in the past few weeks, mostly due to growing season but the fundamentals are also a lot more bullish than last year, has your view about prices changed?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Hi all and myrrdhin in particular.
Is it me, but I feel the price you get for selling options is lower and lower for higher and higher risks (I was unable to get a good price for platinum and for cocoa, maybe it is now time to have a close look at it for a good price on a naked put@2300). Maybe it has to do with commodities in general going up.
So far I gave up a little bit on options and I am more on Futures/CFD on commodities (soybeans, silver, sugar, cotton).
Coffee: I am not comfortable with the current trend and I was too early and finally missed the train...
Are you still more on spreads myrrdhin? Can you summarize what you are watching next or on what you are on currently?
I agree that it is rather difficult to find short option trades that are worth entering. Even Live Cattle options on the day of the important COF Report were rather cheap.
Currently most of my short option positions are in the Hogs: I hold the LHG 60-50 and LHJ P62-52 spreads. In addition I hold the LCG P116/C134 strangle. I hold all of these positions already for a longer period of time.
In coffee I used the recent rise of volatility to enter the short KCH C1.60/P1.125 strangle.
Please see my comments in the Grains & Beans and the Energies Sections regarding spreads.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
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@Sagal & @myrrdin, Mike Green of Thiel Macro has done some excellent interviews on Real Vision TV that discusses how institutions have implemented yield enhancement programs (read : volatility selling strategies) that have now spread to almost all asset classes. Implication is that volatility is cheap everywhere!
Hello,
Does anyone know where I can get the US historical daily/monthly temperature? Something like a US map that shows temperature either by average number of the month or by color (from red to blue). I wasnt able to find monthly data for previous years.
My main goal is to compare the winter weather of the last 7-10 years, as a part of NG fundamentals for trading, and if anyone has a better way to do it rather than using maps, please let me know. Thank you all in advance.
Here is monthly temperature data in both map and numerical form from NOAA. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
(Sometimes the website is slow to load or won't load. Just try again another time.)
My Tableau charts have NWS Degree Day (DD) data for US. Both population weighted cooling degree day data (pwCDD) and gas weighted heating degree day data (gwHDD). Both daily and monthly. Also difference to the long term average. https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870
What is your opinion about NG? Im not sure what I am missing, but I feel like NG prices are a bit low for the current fundamentals. I see that the weekly storage is very close to the 5 year average levels, production is higher (has been increasing for years) but so is the consumption (thus the level of storage not being out of ordinary), export and import numbers are not unusual and are a very small part compared to domestic consumption. The weather is definitely warmer than average, but looking at 2015-2016, the price was around the same level as now (maybe even a bit higher), weather was also very warm but the storage was way higher. In addition the average weekly outflow for the last 2 month of this year is greater than the same number of 2015-2016.
So comparing this year and 2015-2016, I think the price for NG right now is a bit low. Can someone tell me what am I missing?
In addition, why NG prices almost do not react to cold weather blasts? I was in New York area during Thanks Giving, there was a snow storm that I barely escaped and NG prices barely moved up. I was under impression that NG prices are extra sensetive to that kind of information during this time of the year, but I guess Im wrong here, I just want to know why.
I agree that the price for NG is "a bit low". But this does not mean that it cannot go lower if weather stays relatively warm. But longterm I expect higher prices for NG.