dow did a thing yday and has to pull back a tad

resistance makes things rather futile for many components

even bonds have to take a break, crude seems to be more in trend

seems like support held so prob okay and the dip is just a dip overall into next quarter

waiting on the qqq to follow as we dip

tech seems less severe but the daily is more significant

since we are okay overall, spy would be developing further dips

the landscape seems to be primed for anti-inflationary measures

though the underlying narrative is solid regardless of political affiliation

which removes some of the uncertainty which the market environment likes

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strength in the qqq on the tech side and seems to be at supportive levels

hopefully some bootstrapping that helps laggards toward better areas

mostly small caps which may be more rate sensitive, so tbd

there is one hangup in vix that has not been resolved so not 100%

also the profit taking started in nvda in july as coincided with carry unwind

so area is testing or being used for distribution depending on sentiment

last time was end of 2022 followed up by tests of support early 2023

well one good thing is that bonds are still trying to maintain upward trajectory

without going overboard, slow and steady though at highs

and small caps or iwm are benefitting from this

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other indexes could benefit as well by prolonging their highs

spy seems most susceptible to a pullback esp. mag7 components like nvda

nvda already started distribution so adding to already ballooning debt is an unknown

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viewing between tlt and bond, there are some mixed opinions

going to the underlying futures, zb zn zf zt all confirm with bond

so possibly the fed cannot really be that generous with such little room

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stuck between a rock and a hard place and not UwU much either

going to the way back machine to get a grasp on this buy and hold phenomenon from this millennium

using qqqs since they are en vogue atm, the largest volume was in the early 2000s between the dot com and fin bubble

entering after dotcom and/or possibly exiting prior to fin bubble and re-entering post 2008 crash would has the most activity

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everything after has been tiny in comparison w/ tick range / histogram volume indicator

whether we get another decade similar in this lifetime is unknown

definitely a multi generational opportunity there (10x gain)

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so we ask the same question for bonds and tlt has more lookback

2008 was the area of largest volume tapering until the 2022 yield increase

interestingly surpassed the original volume in 2008 indicative of a generational activity

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so while immediately less certain in the longer term, there is definitely positioning here

unsure about the correlate between indexes and bonds ongoing

if indexes would also require a matching volume move

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gld had a moment mid 2010s and slv keeps aggregating higher

vol has had the most activity in the 2020s not sure if this applies

bonds, precious improving volume vs indexes even vol give some thought

same thing ongoing though dow is bucking the trend

oil did have a spark at the open which might contribute

however in the late stages as the turndown runs through

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this is in the context of bonds making a run ahead of fomc

the setup here will likely have to revert prior to setting up

however longer term, should be supportive of lower yields

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whether this correlates to a goldilocks period is less known

as bonds can be protective without sourcing further carries

the setup as written does show late stage signs and some vol

juicing close to sell areas would cause a domino effect

would be better to forgo that extreme and pull back

to develop further support and not trigger sells

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the over hype or front run would be a signal to control

in light of the decent data points and inflation

would be prudent to not overdo things

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more of a psa from the fed