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Closed one tick loss. The premise for the entry was a stall in price appreciation after a fast runup. I was looking for a quick retracemetn. Instead price is consolidating here. Out for 1 tick loss. edit: perhaps a moment too soon.
Resting order to go long in the ~62 area. Note this was my target for 1lot short. Why did I not keep the short with this target - if I'm resting an order to go long at that level? I'm not confident that it will fall to that level but if it does I have more confidence that it will rebound.
Terrible day. Clearly picking a spot to enter with a resting order and walking away from the computer eliminated any opportunity to manage the trade. I'm not sure how I would have handled the trade though. The market provided no opportunity to exit ( no bounce ) right through to the stop loss. Should I make my stops wider so that their purpose is to handle a black swan type event or loss of connection? Clearly I have to do something different.
IF I had been patient in the short trade this would not have happened.
IF I had waited for the market to rebound this would not have happened.
IF I followed my rules for identifying a short bias and only trading in that direction this would not have happened.
IF I continue to construct excuses for failing after the fact rather than maintain discipline before and during the trade I will never succeed.
One thing that worries me on an ongoing basis:
Suppose my ideas about what I should be doing are in fact incorrect and will cause me to loose money in the long run. In other words, If for example I did stay short today and made money, I would not be re-thinking my actions. Same thing if the market went up while I had my long position. Either way the market confirms my action and rewards me. But is what I did and the basis for doing it giving me a lasting edge?
I've written automatic trading systems that work well for 6 months and then fail. How does one know if their own rules are going to do that to them?
Clearly a seller controlled auction today. The reasons given for the selloff don't make sense to me. Asia finished up. Europe is being blamed for the decline with emphasis on VW for the auto emissions scandal. Aslo blamed is the uncertainty over US interest rates. I dismiss both as reasons because the interest rate issue was known last week and the auto scnadal doesn't eem to me to be enough of a reason for a broad decline. But broad decline is what we have....
As I said... broad decline is what we have.... with the exception of the Euro Dollar... down in value ( blue line inverted ) which is bullish for US stock. ?
I feel I have made a mistake today. But it's not that I flipped or that my stop or target are where they are. Instead it's that I did not follow any setup that I defined ahead of time. According to my plan I'm not supposed to use the ETH. But I did and used the d-vwap on it to find a place to short. Then after I was in the trade I decided that the bottom had been put in... just because I saw the TICK moving steadily higher. Ridiculous. The results of this trade will be useless in my goal of building a reliable method. I guess I'm still in the exploratory phase of my development. I have to go through this so that I'll reference points in my history as what works and what doesn't.
Thank you for your comments.