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I have noted (with my massive experience of 2 mths trading ES) that a_down/up when range hasnt extended too much from open (6pts total from todays earlier high) may not mean too much, and as thats failed to extend lower, good chance of extending range to the upside?
Not sure what you use for the up/down parameter but mine is 2pts above/below OR, and it was on the borders of that @2.5.
Other factors: HTF strong uptrend also + reasonable support zone here @98-01s with last cpl of days PA.
That was my thinking anyway. Slight issue with my stop on initial entry, as not averaging down 3 pts.
you are right, A down/up significance is dependant on the context, a_down (2 points from the OR low - which is first 5 min candle from RTH open) is for me at 2202.25
i would mark a_down as in play because we pushed a fair bit through 2202.25 and have spent some time below it
but the context is bullish as you rightly say, so for me to actually start trading the short side i would need it to push through 2198-01 area
the way i view it, a_down/a_up is intraday timeframe control, if this conflicts with higher time frame control then i will be cautious and will usually stick to the higher time frame bias, i.e. in this case buying dips through the 2sd until 98 is breached properly.
that is just hwat i am comfortable with, some people will be happy to start banging on the short as soon as a_down takes place, whereas i like to place emphasis on the bigger picture for my directional bias
Looking for ONH (but front running the ONH, in the eth es kept banging 2 time periods against 7.75 so expect to bang in rth session, usually from low to high looking for a 10 handle range, so it might get to 2210
will see how PA reacts at around 2210 to short. Now flat.