1Week1Trade 

Hi guys, I am currently short on oil: I am just worried "news" from OPEC/ Russia / Middle East that could spark a rally. I

Gutsy play. I am waiting for some early January inventory numbers to panic the hedge funds along with a media barrage about possible cheating.

Quoting 

weekly #natgas production is down -5.30% from an all-time high; #oil output is down -8.41% from its peak in 2015.

Oil dropped before NG.

Timeline 155 year history of oil prices - Business Insider

Sure you all probably watch this but just in case:
https://www.jodidata.org/


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ron99 

Oil dropped before NG.

Nat Gas is being exported as well. Some think we are reaching a long term bottom. I think problem is that the upside is capped as more and more seaborn gas becomes available.

Clipper Data says 4 month high of crude sitting on boats in the Gulf. US production is about half of what we use.

Trailer Guy 

Nat Gas is being exported as well. Some think we are reaching a long term bottom. I think problem is that the upside is capped as more and more seaborn gas becomes available. Clipper Data says 4 month high of crude sitting on boats in the Gulf. US production is about half of what we use.

Upside for oil & NG is capped because if prices increase then US production will increase.

Only one facility in US is exporting LNG. As of Oct they exported 113 Bcf.

ron99 

Only one facility in US is exporting LNG. As of Oct they exported 113 Bcf.

Thanks Ron. Whats the date range on that 113 Bcf?

SMCJB 

Thanks Ron. Whats the date range on that 113 Bcf?

First ever shipment was Feb 2016. Data through Sep.

US Natural Gas Exports Are About to Take a Huge Leap Forward | The Fiscal Times

Here is EIA website for LNG exports. It says 108.752 Bcf from Sabine Pass, LA, Feb thru Sep this year. It says 109.039 total. I have no idea where the article got 113 Bcf.

U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas Exports by Point of Exit

Here are annual US imports of all types of NG.
U.S. Natural Gas Imports by Country

91.511 Bcf LNG imports in 2015. 2,625.359 Bcf NG imported from Canada by pipeline in 2015.

Thanks Ron. So LNG imports almost equal LNG exports. Of course that works when prices in New England are $7.50 over those in Louisiana!

Ron,
Thanks for looking that up. It took forever for the first export train to get built. They have several more permitted here and in Canada. I saw somewhere that Sabine has at least one more partially built, don't know the status on the others.

If you want to join the specs and add on to a record long position then these export trains don't mean much, only he next couple of arctic blasts are meaningful. The reality is it is now all about forecasting weather and guessing at how big the draw needs to be to stamped the utility buyers.

Longer term it is a different story. New export trains have been completed or are under construction all over the place from Africa to Australia. They are organizing a futures market for LNG. So if your thesis is that as Chesapeake blows up we will return to the good old days of $12 then you better be looking at the globalization of the world market before you make any long term bets. Of course I am nostalgic for the old days of coal seam gas trusts, especially at tax time! Just saying the world has changed.

For right now the hedge funds and other non-commercials are at record long in gas and oil. And of course come January oil will get really emotional. In gas these guys were wrongish the last two times they piled in so maybe they will get it right and it will be a cold winter. The satellite people say things have really cooled down with the shift in the ocean oscillators. If it isn't they will get eaten alive.