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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,057 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,399
Thanks Received: 10,225
I think it was John Arnold that said
With Saudi Aramco targeting a 2018 IPO, I think market has underestimated their desire to keep the oil market supported for next 18 months.
Initially I didn't agree, but I've been surprised by OPECs adherance to the reduced quota's to date and now think he may have hit the nail on the head. I do believe with crude > 50 US production will ramp up though.
Weird S shaped forward curve currently with
H7 >$2 below Z7 but
M8 50c ish over M9 and then
Z20 $1ish below Z22
I believe I currently have the smallest CL spread position I have had in years
Recently I read about the forward curve (not only for Crude Oil futures, but for any other commodities futures in general). I am wondering how useful it is as an indicator or a trading tool?
Basically it's a plot of front-month price of crude oil futures and subsequent months price.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,057 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,399
Thanks Received: 10,225
Welcome Hiran.
How useful it as an indicator or trading tool to do what? Trading prompt month crude? Pretty much none at all. Trading spreads? Well that's what trading spreads is, trading the shape of the forward curve. I personally believe (and have documented in this thread) that the forward curve twists and turns in ways that can be profited from by taking low risk, high probability trades. The problem these are all spreads and/or butterfiles and are often difficult if not impossible to execute effectively on most retail platforms. More than willing to discuss more if you have specific ideas or questions.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,057 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,399
Thanks Received: 10,225
WSJ :- The Oil Rally’s Nemesis Could Be U.S. Drivers — Energy Journal
"Americans used less gasoline last month than they have in 15 years, write Timothy Puko and Alison Sider. That has helped a gasoline supply glut to build up, with storage levels reaching the highest level in 27 years of U.S. record keeping."