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In fact, I am a bit uncomfortable with this trade. But, I try to control that and just look at the chart. Lately I've been trying to "do better" when scaling in on winners, and sometimes it is great and you have massive gains. And sometimes you end up scaling in near the bottom and then have a bad price if things stop moving in your favor My last entry in fact was about 4 hours ago, as price stopped moving downward abruptly and is now sideways.
Nothing is perfect. If I need to close this short, then I will. I agree that a gap fill is likely. But since I am leaning on cumulative delta these days, I will be watching closely to see what the volume shows --- is it in the direction of the gap fill, or not? I think that is a telling sign.
Anyway, managing risk is of key importance. While I would like the first trade of this thread to be a winner, I certainly am willing to accept it will not be.
Another thing I would likely look at is that bear flag retest to scale short in. This is typical scale short trade (as most are IMO). Obviously being a currency, it is entirely possible for that bottom to fall out, which would mean a killing for you. Rooting for you
So yeah hold on to it, something rotten in Euro land and high probably on a bottom fall out move
It seems euro is heading to 1.33 in short-term as a target of this bearish Gartley on 4 hr may be till FOMC meet and depending on whether QE3 is announced, it will decide further course. Also break of a bearish flag on 1 and 4 hr.
USD index is also forming a bearish Gartley at 79-80 level on a daily.
I'm flat. I get bored too easily sometimes, and I tend to err on the side of defensive trading. The sideways movement did me in here, but I still made some ticks.
If I wasn't so exhausted, I'd strongly consider a long position here if the cash session opens up with some buying, with a target near a gap fill.
I didn't like the buying coming in and the continued failure to really push lower. Not a good combination, especially with a large unfilled gap looming above.