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Without a new application for EU/ECB/IMF money by 16th of February
and renewed covenants, Greece virtually will be out of EMU
as soon as the 60b of Emergency Liquidity Assistance of the ECB run out.
From then on, you can count down to the default of Greece in days.
But I still can't believe that the Greeks will take a chance on cleaning their
legendary Augean stables on their own ...
1) as a export country mainly to EC countries they need a stable currency
2) to pay back all (?) debts they can only do it within a strong currency supporting them (not only printing own money)
3) the important tourist sector for Greece is primordial and needs to have a currency the visitors believe in
To make it short - Greece can never get out of the EURO easily
If you produce at the fringes & export to the core -> a weaker currency is extremely beneficial
(see Poland. CzechRep, ...)
Hence no Euro = better for greek citizens
A) the "strong currency" Euro was the reason that inflated greek's debt in the first place.
B) they can not pay back debt/ they will default more ( as they already did. (insert haircut euphemism here)
this default will happen, with or without euro.
like "1" > a weaker currency is extremely beneficial for tourism sector.
(see some of the Balkan states. btw should they join - will be doomed like Greece)
I am replying here to your post, because I dont know if they want this in the SP500 thread.
I can sum-up my point as: "Europe needs to get out of the Euro for Europe's sake."
There was a Europe before 2000 (before the Euro).
There was a common market, harmonized/low trade barriers.
There was peaceful collaboration.
Now, with & because of the EURO you have 50%+ youth unemployment in Spain/Italy/Greece
besides many other ills.
That is mental! They have every right to burn down the house - and they will.
A common currency forces common tax/fiscal system (meaning: shared debt under the same tax laws).
There is NO popular majority for this - anywhere in Europe (all (of the few allowed) ballots showed this).
One can summarize the EU policies of the last 3 years as salami tactics to sneak this shared debt in - via
backdoors & misnaming.
A common currency forces common economic policies. "One ring to rule them all ".
The ultimate central planing. The EUDSSR.
Of course this totally ignores any local unique characteristics:
e.g strong family business structure in Italy
or the deep rooted mistrust for government in Greece - probably going back to the conflict with Turkey or the 70ies
Dont think for a second, the economic malaise is your counties fault. Be proud of your nation (or local state).
This makes me -want to punch a Eurocrat - I dont see one right now.
If you look at a high resolution map of per capita productivity in Europe,you will see,
that Germany is incapable to lift its own underdeveloped east
- this situation persists for 25 years !
Europe needs to get out of the Euro for Europe's sake.