updated sentiment, and statistically derived price bias based on the variables used to derive sentiment.

Updated CME Bitcoin Futures, Futures-Options implied sentiment:



Most of the Sept. downside bets from earlier in the week have been squeezed.

short term sentiment is looking like shorts getting crowded

updated sentiment

Front Month:


2nd month:

CME implied sentiment update:

It looks like nearly all of the bearish bets built up the previous week had been squeezed in the previous 2 sessions.

I've begun to estimate implied sentiment at the OTC dealers, too.



Current retail longs are getting a bit crowded.

Big buy flow on BTC calls in the previous day, this is usually bullish but with stocks moving lower, and OTC forward/swap retail longs getting crowded, the rally could slow.

CME traders turning relatively optimistic.

estimated otc platform customer sentiment:

CME implied sentiment updates:

v21: we're at relatively high optimism, with the number at 90percentile


x21: bullish still, but not at extreme.