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Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
Great information! I follow Denninger quite a bit. He called the last meltdown and he's spot on again as is William Black.
I don't think this recession ever ended and in fact is about to get worse because of the politician's unwillingness to do anything about this mess out of fear of being exposed for their past wrong doings. They'd rather sweep it under the rug and forget about it. I fear that this will not end well regardless of what the Fed does. If there's another bank bailout, I think we will see rage in the streets. Everyone is sick and tired of the corruption that is occurring and another bailout would be the straw that breaks the camel's back I would think.
On the flip side, at some point the market will breakout of this range bound nonsense and we could have some massive moves in the markets. Maybe even another huge down day like the flash crash. There are multiple unfilled gaps on the ES at the bottom of this rally that would love to be filled. Not sure if they ever will but I could see a retest of the lows no problem.
In keeping with the time honored tradition, I offer these year-end predictions, for discussion...
Looking at the 15 year chart of the SPX, one can't ignore the massive double top, with the first top formed in March 2000@1553, and the second top, formed in October 2007@1576. We are STILL firmly entrenched in a secular bear market that began with the formation of the first top in 2000, and could conceivably last for up to 5 more years. My prediction is the that the current bear market rally in the SPX will top out in 2010 around the 1250 area. The stronger the economic numbers released, the sooner the top. Conversely, the weaker the economic numbers, the later the top. Whatever the time frame, the market will take out the March 2009 lows.
Cryoport will successfully commercialize their product,and capture market share, although the road to profitability, will be an arduous one. The stock price will move higher, but will not follow the linear path, that everybody hopes for. This will be the case,of course, until the shit hits the fan again.
Dominant themes will be emerging markets, gold, and basic materials & commodities.
Dollar will rally, and then collapse. Bonds will make new lows, yield curve will steepen, and the banks will reap the benefits.
Dominant trends in VC/Private Equity will be Clean/Green Tech and Cloud Technology.
Bears will win the Super Bowl in 2010, Lovie Smith will be the next Mayor of Chicago, and the Cubs will win the World Series 4-0.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
Good point Silvester. TF looked like it fell out of it's pattern half way up and then jumped back in. I don't put as much weight on TF for big picture stuff as I do with ES. ES being the market with all the liquidity. If there's a big move there, it's most likely real. I've also observed TF diverge from the other markets from time to time. But I'm guessing we'll see next week what's next with the Fed's QE announcement.