Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
FOR MY RULES, 1 Min and 5 Min charts must agree to enter a Long. At this time, they do not. Maybe later.. but I am done for the day. There will be other opportunities, after all, Opportunities are like buses, they come and go all the time. I will get on the next bus.
I found it interesting that on the back of Pierre Andurand finally admitting defeat on his bullish bet we now see Andy Hall closing down his main fund. From a speculative standpoint, one could suggest that both Andurand and Hall received the nod from OPEC that they would cut production whilst the hedgies took speculative long positions and talked up the price of crude.
The fact that so many producers continued hedging relentlessly any time WTI peaked it's head above the $50, coupled with the fact many saw past the Saudis facade of cutting oil exports but increasing refined exports proved a bigger obstacle than they realised. I think the closure of Hall's fund may say something about OPEC's stature...perhaps Hall realised they are no longer the dominant force in these markets and his influence/inclusion within that circle no longer holds the same edge.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,059 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,410
Thanks Received: 10,226
These are live
z7m8z8 currently 2 ticks wide and traded 40 odd times, m8z8m9 and z8m9z9 both 3 ticks wide, and m9z9m0 4 ticks wide.
z7z8z9 currently 3 ticks wide. No market in m8m9m0 due to no market in m9m0.
In this good Bloomberg article, there is a paragraph which to me is utterly puzzling:
So: we all know that OPEC's cuts aim to boost oil price. But if the oil price boost revives "investment in the U.S. shale industry, causing production there to boom again", this is a catch-22.
Personally I've seen this as a vicious circle since Nov-2014. Am I being too simplistic, or is this at the very heart of OPEC's problem?
No, I don't think you're being too simplistic. That is a significant part of the OPEC conundrum. Their attempts to cut ultimately put the market into backwardation (supposed oversupply). The US has moved itself into a quasi-swing producer position, which lessens the affect of what OPEC can do. Worth noting the OPEC members and supporters (Russia) are also factor here as they are notorious for cheating. Nevertheless, you are correct in that the US plays a much bigger role in this than they did prior to, say, 2005.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,059 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,410
Thanks Received: 10,226
Adding to what said, the market being in contango has been an added problem for OPEC. They are selling based upon spot prices while US producers are hedging based upon forward prices which are several dollars higher. Goldman did a good piece discussing this several months ago.
Kemp - Should OPEC worry about contango and backwardation? (
Goldman's strategy aims to "share growth" between OPEC and shale firms to avoid another repeat of boom and bust in oil prices ("Backwardation is the solution", Goldman …
That's interesting. I wonder whether WTI and Brent fundamentals detach again. Continue to be surprised how the trading community and media's focus seems to be on WTI and not Brent.
Backwardation. That's the Goldman Sachs diagnosis for OPEC …