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Those hoping to see a continued rise in U.S. production should have two immediate concerns:
The number of operating oil rigs has stopped growing (Figure 1)
The marginal productivity of operating oil rigs is falling quickly (Figure 2)
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,059 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,410
Thanks Received: 10,226
Front up over a $1 while the way back is down about 35c.
Right now May18 thru thru Aug20 are all within a few pennies of each other.
We're getting close to that wierd curve shape where the front is contango, the middle in backwardation, and the back in contango, like we saw earlier in the year.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,059 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,410
Thanks Received: 10,226
SEPTEMBER 14, 2017 EIA projects 28% increase in world energy use by 2040
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017) projects that world energy consumption will grow by 28% between 2015 and 2040. Most of this growth is expected to come from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and especially in countries where demand is driven by strong economic growth, particularly in Asia. Non-OECD Asia (which includes China and India) accounts for more than 60% of the world's total increase in energy consumption from 2015 through 2040.
Its getting steeper now in the near term, about 54c between Dec17 and Jun18 and flatter between Jun18 and Jun20. Do you have a butterfly in place? Are you looking for the curve to flatten in the near term? I am trying to understand how you play the different shapes of the curve. Any advice is much appreciated.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,059 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,410
Thanks Received: 10,226
After a long summer, including two international weddings, and our friend Harvey (did you stay dry?), I actually haven't been very active in a couple of months. z7m8z8 is getting too close to expiry for my liking but my models all think it's cheap. The next few flys are all really flat and liquidity further back is to poor to trade - so virtually no 6mth fly positions.
The 12 month flys z890, z901, z012, z123 are also all very flat. No way z123 is 40c over z345 but that's just bad settelements and you can't trade it.
Even the 1mth flies are all pretty even.
So I have very little on - without doubt the least in years.