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EUR/USD resilience is the name of the game and these last couple of weeks are just a case in a point. ECB speakers tried to talk the singl currency down, EUR/USD inched higher. Very strong US data that bet all of the expectations, EUR/USD still on the rise.
So, what is actually going on? Simply put it, cash flows still have the upper hand over macro fundamentals in driving EUR/USD. The latest proprietary flows data from Deutsche Bank released today solidifies this argument.
"M&A flows in the United States turned sharply negative over the week, on account of a USD 15.7bn deal fixed between Euro zone and US. The economy has now witnessed outflows on 3 month basis of -16bn USD seeing YTD inflows fall to USD 8bn. In contrast, inflows to the Eurozone have surged to USD 32bn on 3-month basis. The region’s YTD inflows of USD 35bn are more than half of the total capital it attracted last year," DB reports in a note to clients.
Structural USD bulls, DB included, believe that flows will eventually follow fundaments and start to reverse course. Well, until then EUR/USD will likely stay well supported.
This is same chart..thought I might point out the long trade on it....at open of candle with blue arrow under it...technically it's still in play. I missed out on it.
IF EU still continue to fall then .3571x/.3457x is a good number in my view, But still, i think EU is still going to rise in the long run (monthly perspective).
