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I placed an ON trade at 4760.25, just after the market hit the 4758 area, hoping that the market would come down a bit and give me a better fill. I could've guaranteed a fill ~ 4761.50 but I wasn't comfortable with where my stop would be ON. The market just moved up from there unfortunately and never filled me, oh well. It would've been nice to wake up to a win
Election day is here , similar to yesterday I'll be in reaction mode around fundamentals
ON activity wasn't as bullish as I expected it to be, our EU friends must not trust the polls after brexit, and who can blame them
NQ starting out 10 pts below open
The emphasis will be same as yesterday, and I'll be looking strictly at fundamentals
No big news until China information tonight, which will probably be shadowed by the US election results
Polls are mostly favoring Clinton, nationally and by state
Electoral college giving strong edge to Clinton, some are expecting a ~300 EV win for Clinton
If Clinton wins, some banks are expecting a 3% gain in the S&P in the near future
If Trump wins, some banks are expecting up to a 13% loss in the S&P in the near future
Early voting in some battleground states shows Clinton has an edge, assuming no big party crossover votes
Senate race looks very close
House looks to keep GOP control, but if the democrats take all 3, the market could react negatively
Today I'll be trading well into the ON session, and depending on who wins, I might be up all night
Polls first close @ 7, you should see investors placing their bets as soon as some early states start to report (Florida, NC, and Ohio)
Looking at NQ components, PCLN is up 4.4%, MDLZ is up 1.75%, ESRX is down 4%
Banks are down anywhere between 0.33% and 1.13% ~9EST
Big surprises to watch out for today
Trump takes Florida and NC
Trump wins election
Clinton wins presidency, but democrats take senate and house
Trump wins presidency, GOP keeps senate and house
Black swan news related to the US election
Very negative China information
Scenarios
Low range day, stick between PDH and ON Low most likely
Bull trend day, investors feel confidence in the polls and place their bets this morning
Bear trend day, investors feeling the brexit hit, choose to exit this morning until election results start to come in
Volatile day, if polling is inconsistent or shows some very tight probabilities we could see some high volatility with big moves up and down
Setups I'll take today
???
Psychology goals for the day
0 Emotional trades - All of the trades will be 'mixed', but I need to be able to back them by fundamentals in the election
I want to say 0 FOMO trades but if I'm trading based on news, I will enter based on news, wouldn't these trades be FOMO in nature?
Deliberate thinking in ALL trades, let's be strong on that one
Trade management today same as yesterday - Guarantee profit after 8 pts, move profit up after every 5 pts
Re-read your daily psychology prep every 30 minutes to ensure your head is in the game - set an alarm on Outlook for this
Be prepared to walk away at anytime should the pressure become too much for you
3 Losses maximum today, do not take a 4th trade after 3 losses under any circumstance and completely walk away from your office after your 3rd loss
Do not 'look' for opportunities, play today off as you would any FOMC announcements, this includes the opening session
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
This is so far the best day I've had in my trading career, I feel very happy to be honest.
I've secured some really good profits, and honestly I wish I was strong enough to hold out for longer, but I was just getting too nervous and anxious. I'm not strong enough psychologically to be able to risk big profits for even bigger profits, not at this stage.
I'll be honest and I broke some of my psychology goals. I'm past my trade limit and I am going to look for an opportunity that will hold well into the election results start to come out. Who knows if that will happen during the RTH though.
I had a bunch of trades today so I'm just going to paste all of the screenshots as it would take me too long to go through every trade in detail
I took some very good trades so far, and I feel very good. However, after I took my big winner and cashed in at ~4809 area, I started taking some careless trades. I was way too bullish and I was no longer reading the market
I was just looking to buy, buy, buy.
This is something that I'm going to need to work on in the future, as I start to take off my trade limits.
I need to learn how to add a contract to my position without a market order. Right now I do it with a market order because in the past I did it with a limit order and accidentally exited my trade instead of adding on to a position . I know I'm stupid but I just have made a couple of mistakes that I'd rather not risk it lol, but it's costing me some pts
Overall I'm up ~45 pts so I can't complain. I will admit that my focus today has been short-term profits though, as election day doesn't happen often enough to try and learn without caring about profits.
Less than 2 hrs less in the trading day so we will see whether or not I take another trade during the RTH. But I do expect to take a few trades once election results start to come in.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
I traded a ridiculous 190 trades, yes you heard that right. 190. damn. trades.
In all fairness, I started trading 2 contracts like 30 minutes into the night, but still.
I don't know how to count this because this is more trades than I have taken in the last 2 months , maybe even 3? lol I'm not sure
I was down 13% at one point, and I ended 7.39% up. There were so many times when I was up or down 2 bucks.
I got very lucky at the end though and the last 3 trades went my way, so thankfully I was able to end on a positive note.
Knowing what I know now, I would play this completely different.
Now you need to tell yourself that you were very damn lucky today, and just because you ended positive does not mean you are a good trader. As a matter of fact, you traded awfully today, and I hope you can reflect on that
Gnight!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Yeah... not proud of today to be honest. It gives me a lot to think about
I want to blame this on me being a rookie, but honestly this was me being way too emotional. First time trading an event like this from the beginning (came into brexit like 5-6 hrs late, right before the limit) is no excuse.
This is now in the past, and I need to make sure the past doesn't repeat itself. The real test will be if I can put this behind me and trade as I usually do tomorrow.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Setups I'll take today
This is NOT a comprehensive list, as anything goes today, but some strong areas where I would like to enter if the right signs are there
~4780
LF Short
Be careful if we are in BTFD mode
Guarantee 10 pt profit when reasonable
Target 4726, watch 4750 area
If market is trending down, you can lower target to 4660, you must watch the 4700 area closely though
~4720
Go Long
Break out trade
Watch the ES and how it interacts with the 2100 area
~4715
LF Short
You need to feel good that we aren't breaking out
Watch the ES and how it interacts with the 2100 area
~4650
LF Long
You are looking for the market to stay within the range
Guarantee a 10pt profit as soon as it's reasonably possible
Target 4693, don't get greedy on this unless the news is stressing that you BTFD
~4650
LF Break down
Guarantee a 10pt profit as soon as it's reasonably possible
Target for at least 4604, potentially 4560, and if we are moving down super fast then 4513
Aim 4513 at least, only take it further if the market is trending bear quite crazy
Strategy for today, as well as rules that must be followed
You must trade with the trend, do not look for a trend reversal whatsoever
Start with 1 contract, only add to a position after AT LEAST 30 points, and if the market is moving your way, guarantee 10 pts of profits as soon as you are able to
Learn from your mistakes last night, Enter at STRATEGIC locations, not just because you think the market will go a certain way
Survive the volatility until it goes the way your trade entry expected it to go, after this happens, then move your stop to a positive point. Do not exit early, do not get tempted by profits
1% max risk will be waived today, but try your best to stick to it if it's possible
3.5 max daily loss is still in effect
You need to keep your head in the game all day. If you sense you are starting to get frustrated, just walk away for the day
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Well, yesterday's RTH was my best trading day in my trading career
Last night? Well it was fucking crazy and I got very lucky
But this morning? It has now become my new best trading day yet, ROI wise at least
Honestly I learned a lot from my trading last night, and I adapted very fast. I took 9 trades this morning but the market was very volatile so it is warranted.
I won't go over all my trades in detail as I'm tired and they happened really fast, but here's a screenshot (hard to read at some areas because of all the ON trades):
Here's how I improved today from last night's shitshow
My trades were not emotional, I was looking for certain signs on when to buy and sell and I read the market to enter. Yesterday I just looked at the election results and kept shorting, even when the market was buying back
Instead of going in with 2 contracts at once with like 2 pts of risk, I went in with 1 contract at 5-6 initial risk. Once the market went my way enough, I modified my risk to 2-3 pts, and after a certain amount of profits, I moved my stop to a break even point or a 5-10 pt guaranteed profit. This meant that my maximum loss today was 74.06 (with commissions), while my biggest win was 770
I traded as I have done in the last couple of weeks. I was calm, collected, and although very excited I was able to engage my deliberate thinking in the trades.
I was perfectly okay with not being in a trade, whereas last night I don't know that I went more than a couple of minutes without being in a trade
Overall, it was a complete turnaround from how I traded yesterday mentality wise, and it paid off. There's a lot more room for the market to move today, but I think I am going to step away and walk away with a ~10% win day.
I took almost 100 pts from the RTH session today (provided I didn't fuck up my spreadsheet entries), more than double the amount of pts from yesterday, all while trading 1 contract!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
So today I wasn't even sure if I was going to trade as I had a Dr's appointment this morning. Also, I only slept a bit during election night, napped some of the afternoon yesterday, and I needed a good sleep. I told myself I won't set an alarm, and if I wake up with enough time to trade, then I'll consider trading.
I woke up 20 minutes before market opened, got to my desk 15 minutes before open, and I didn't have time to make a plan. I was just going to go off the plan I had yesterday for the most part though, so I just did that.
Boy I am really happy I made that decision.
Once again, I broke my record of best day, and today has now become my best day.
I was getting ready while trading this morning so I didn't really have time to do detailed trades in my chart pictures today. I've got a couple of pictures. I took 10 trades today, which again I'm ok with because of how volatile this environment is.
Market was moving quite aggressively and I had to leave the house for my appointment. Believe me, I did not want to leave while the market was this aggressive but I had no choice
When I got to the doctors office I checked the CME website and I saw that the market was 20 pts below my stop but the low was below my target. This made me extremely anxious as to whether or not I survived the pullback and made a big trade or not.
I tried to log in to the IB website on my phone but it wasn't working, and I wasn't able to make a phone call.
I had to be anxious for 2 hrs until I got home. And boy did I jump for joy when i got home.
My stop was at 4743.75, the market went to 4743.25. I always talk about how close I was to surviving or entering a good trade, this time things went MY way, and WOW what a time for things to go my way by a couple of ticks.
This is the best trade I've ever taken, a 29-1 Reward to Risk trade on the first one.
If you take into account the scale in, I never risked more than $65 of risk for a reward of $2,825. This is a 43-1 ratio. In terms of points I risked 3.25 pts for 141.25 of profit.
However, I wouldn't count it as a 43-1 trade because technically any scale in I do after I made a certain amount of profit won't dip into my account as long as the stop is in front of my averaged out entry point. And I don't like to scale in and risk more than unrealized profits. In a way I see it as I'm grabbing my unrealized profits, and using that as a risk mechanism to multiply my gains. I don't know if that's how the rest of traders see their scale-ins or not, just my view point
I only want to bring up pts in profit again because right now I am in short-term profit mode, and not long-term growth mode. Today I took ~150 pts of net profits from the NQ today. I am thinking of taking tomorrow off to cool myself down a bit. This week I've seen huge returns % wise and I don't want to feel like I'm a good trader when I'm still a rookie. I need to put myself in my place so that I don't start making big mistakes. I'll think about it and decide tonight.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity