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If you are malleable in your adoption of ideas and perspectives, don't read this.
Price gapped up at the open yesterday and explored new territory over night. If we fill the gap, I'm not going to be part of it. I'm not shorting this market today. Psychologically, it would be nice for 3000 to be reached. I carefully back 3000.
Potential entry prices (from best to worst):
2960, 2963, ~2968, ~2970, ~2973.75
Given the technical bullish strength, what entry prices are realistic to be re-discovered (from most likely to least likely)?:
2973.75, 2970, ~2967-8
I'll be looking at the interaction of price at the levels I'm interested in to determine best entry according to time, volume and volatility. I like ~2968 the most, though.
What do I do if price doesn't test my potential entry levels?: I don't trade the breakout. There will be more, safer opportunities in the future.
What do I do if price tests these lower prices before the open? Only enter after recognizing certainly viable volume with follow-through. Today may be a big day, so entering at a better price before the open on lower volatility may increase my odds of success (given the 2pt. stop).
Thesis has been established, my set-up is developing, and now I'm waiting for expression to trigger execution.
No trades today. The open was weak, especially compared to how I imagined it would be given the technicals. I actually easily imagined a bullish open drive and thought it was most likely to happen, but it didn't. Instead, price moved on light volume through the path I wanted to see in order to trade. I was looking for absorption and exhaustion as price passed from the worst to best entry locations I listed earlier, but the activity was simply off-putting logically and every chance there was to enter was negated by questionable price behavior. I'm glad I held out for something better, which never came.
My wins on the day:
- The monkey in me saw a breakout trade, but he couldn't do anything about it.
- The greed in me would've liked to enter at even the worst price (2973), but it couldn't and didn't take effect.
- I put effort into being discriminate in my analysis, and evaluated price skeptically. This is real-time engagement.
Performance-wise, I was on top of my game. This is a good roll so far, because last Friday was great as well in this regard.
Thanks Ron. I have his book and I've read it 3 times (Trading In The Zone). I should probably go ahead and read it again now that I'm more experienced.
He refers to "recognizing an edge," which is subtly different in my mind from generally "having an edge" which is talked about in the trading mainstream: The distinction is, great traders are experienced to the point where they may know the higher likelihood of an event occurring during certain conditions (recognizing an edge), whereas I've understood edge as a comparatively lesser ability to capitalize on opportunity almost mechanically in set conditions. That video kind of opens the possibilities up, in a way. It would be nice to wholly "be the edge." Maybe in 10 years!
"..when you make up your mind, basically, the implications are you make up your mind with so much energy and so much conviction that you have literally wiped away all the other conflicts."
I went into today's trading with a plan very similar to yesterdays, except with a minutely different set of what I consider to be good entry locations. Admittedly, I was less engaged and thorough in my planning this morning, because mentally I was preoccupied with what was/is going on in the crypto currency space, and I've found myself pretty deep into researching some of the most popular cryptos- not to trade, but to invest in, for the long-term. Given that it's the Fourth of July week and not much is going on in the MES, I suppose now is the time to do such investigating. So, I didn't take a trade today, and I don't plan to.
I'm starting to miss the activity we had last May! On a positive note, I'll consider this a test of my patience and discipline.
The ES reached 3000 right before the Fourth of July. Are we so sure this shit isn't rigged? Just kidding.
No trades today (I'm aware of the redundancy) in futures. On a positive note, I locked in $100 on my LINK investment and sent it to my checking account. This is the first time I've paid myself in my trading career. I know, $100 isn't all that much, but it's a start. I'm happy!!
On top of that, I won a $50 Amazon gift card from futures.io / @Big Mike. I really appreciate this, and I obviously wouldn't have won it without the generosity of Big Mike and the "Thank You's" from all of the members here that support me. Maybe I'll take that $50 and put more value into my journal via a solid microphone or a webcam to make videos, to bring further immersion to my experience as an aspiring trader. It's an appealing idea to me and I'm heavily considering it.
Anyways, I'll be going to the beach with some friends tomorrow to celebrate the Fourth. Also, I'm not even sure if the market is open this Friday, but I won't be trading. I look forward to this coming Monday so I can maybe trade in better conditions. Until then, I'll be enjoying myself, and I'll inevitably post here over the weekend. Once again, I thank all of you.
That's what I thought! It would be a reciprocal investment in futures.io; maybe some day it would add even more value to this forum and community, perhaps while simultaneously shaping me into a better trader. You too, @Rrrracer!