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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,060 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,410
Thanks Received: 10,230
Front several one months are negative, once you get to UVX, all the none-KMN and XZF flies are all around 2c for years. The XZFs are as tight as I've ever seen them all the way out, most around -4. In the 6 month flys prompt MZM is historically pretty wide but we're getting closer to expiry so anything could happen. All the others, and all the ZZZs are backwardated. z2mz is around 37 and z3mz around 25. Funny thing is I can tell you all that without looking but I couldn't tell you where outright prices is within $2.50 without checking!
One of the biggest trading plays in 2020 was to store oil during the downturn, buying it at low prices and selling it later when prices recovered.
...
BP made around $1.7 billion on this strategy alone in the second quarter of 2020
Last couple of days z3m4z4 is trading premium to z2m3z3 and z4m5z5. Don't see that in a market this backwardated very often. Shame that trading z3m4z4 is like pulling teeth.
Running some statistical tests with data I usually reference by eyeballing alone. Hopefully you guys find this interesting too.
here's a short term bias based on change in valuation against a basket of crude oil types, using a group of statistical methods. I used linear regression, K-Nearest Neighbor, and ARIMA fit here.
The numbers give a slightly bearish outlook the next few days, though I wouldn't take trades purely based on this, since it's blind to qualitative factors.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,060 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,410
Thanks Received: 10,230
interesting chart from Reuters John Kemp on Price vs Rig Count
"U.S. OIL RIG COUNT rose +8 to 373 last week and is up by +201 from the cyclical low in Aug 2020, but still less than half the number the last time prices were above $70 per barrel: "
If looking for open range breakouts what time of the day should I monitor for WTI crude? In the logical trader book MF says crude trades from 9:45 am Eastern time. Is this still considered the open time that could be used for open range breakouts?
Hi, no idea why, the Crude Pit session was as I posted above (day-session), but maybe he means 15 min after the cash-open? Traders take different time-frames for OR, maybe he uses 15min (in his case after the cash-open), others take 5min OR, if I remember correct S&P pit-traders took 2min