Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
News trading by itself always has problems unless you can factor in what the market is currently doing, what it is expecting (and what would be unexpected), who is leaning which way, what's been factored in and what hasn't, etc.
You may not be able to know this until afterward, when you can figure it out based on the actual reaction to the news event. But that's just a little later than you really want to know it.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,059 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,410
Thanks Received: 10,226
CRUDE OIL MARGINS DOWN EFFECTIVE 27TH AUGUST
Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Oct21 decreasing from $5300 to $5100, -$200
Tier 2 / Nov21 decreasing from $5200 to $5050, -$150
Tier 3 / Dec21 decreasing from $5100 to $4950, -$150
Tier 4 / Jan22 decreasing from $5000 to $4850, -$150
...
Tier 40 / Jan25 decreasing from $2600 to $2500, -$100
...
All other months reduced by $100.
what do you all think regarding Ida? i thiink its more likely to see gulf production to come back online than demand sooner than demand, therefore bearish thenext few weeks.
Ran some production, use, storage data from EIA mostly, against following 5 day price moves through some stats. Output from this is about -0.7%~ in the coming week. Gonna try to track and update this every few days.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,059 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,410
Thanks Received: 10,226
Nice.
Have you considered maybe the 12 week or 1 year change of the "Baker Hughes Oil & Gas Rig Counts"? Wouldn't be surprised if that was more predictive than the absolute value.
thank you for the awesome suggestion, I'm gonna test it this weekend and update you guys.
*Update,
I've added the Baker Hughes data into the predictive mix. But first looked at the correlations between these numbers against following 1month (roll adjusted) changes in 2nd month futures prices,
And here's the latest estimate from the quantile regression fit: