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no, youve misunderstood, its to help build context to understand how the day will unfold.
A_down suggests it will continue down. So you look to sell on a pullback - whether thats into -SD1/OR or IB lows or mid levels, whereever is good RR.
I was long yest, it wasnt A_down - needs to build value 2pts (i use this for A&C) below OR low. I went long the day before when it was close to being A_down, as i had long bias, and it was on the margins of A_down and the value was built around decent support anyway....so I took a punt on those support levels holding.
It cant be A_up and C_up, it can only be C_up if it was first an A_down, and C_down if it was first an A_up.
It was A_up yest, bias was long (HTFs are massive uptrend), so any pullback was worth a buy as you are taking a punt on the trend continuing.....and obviously it did.
I cant speak for what risk you are happy to hold, or your style, can only talk from my way of doing things. My method should return approx 60%+ winning trades, and I look for swings of approx 5-6pts+, and I am happy to accept about <=2pt risk. So thats RR of close to 1:3. So that means I only need to be right 25% of the time to BE. If i am right at 60% of the time then thats a great return on risk. Since I have been doing this journal my strike rate is >60%. At 50% trading 3 lots, taking 2 trades a day = +9pts return average, daily.
So i am looking for levels where I can enter in which look to be turning points, and at my puke point/where I am wrong (2pts below my entry) i wouldnt want to be taking another trade in that direction - so I wont be averaging stupidly and skewing my risk/return. My targets depend on whats happened that day, eth, vwaps etc....but i need clearish room to get to 5pts+. Generally you are 'betting' on it being a range day - and you want to find the low(or high) of that range to fade, and more often than not it will extend or swing to the other side of the range, which should be greater 5pts as ADR is ~15pts on ES. (~10pts is roughly normal at moment for ES on range days).
My RR is fairly tight as I am trying to build account and not get too many big down hits - but if and when account is built up nicely i may be get bit more aggressive and have wider stops - at the moment though there is no need, I seem to be reading market ranges ok (despite just getting stopped out very stupidly).
Position size for me is roughly risking 2% of account on each trade - main size is 3 lot, but happy to add another 2 with tight stops (1pt) so i can play around scalping mid range. It will take 50 consec losing trades to wipe me out. 3 lots mean that if i take 1 off to bank some profits before reaching target - hoping to scalp and improve my basis, but market continues straight to targets - i still have 2/3rds of full size on so should still be making 12pts+on that trade.
So all these things need to align: RR / confluence of levels / targets etc plus internals for me to take a trade. The rest is for the market to do, whether it stops me or goes to target. There is no question of letting losers get bigger than winners; nor whether i only have 1 contract on for a winner vs 3 on for a loser - it is always 2-3 contracts per winner or loser.
Its as simple as that. Doing it is not easy though.
You really need to have all this worked out well before risking any of your money.
(This is all my way of doing it, so please dont take as definitive, plenty of other ways to do similar).
I am playing a range day today, tight stops just above hods, bit risky as counter strong trend and only 6 pt range so it should extend one way, and odds are it will be higher.
im long OR top / RTH vwap looking for IBH break, already taken half off on this push up
haven't done A_up yet however overnight high broken and it flirted with A_Up earlier and failed to sustain below OR bottom so feel long is the way to go