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This is exactly what I am going thru right now, my damn system will do good in real testing but when I decide to turn it on for real money that whole experience is different (not good) so I am going back to point # 1 and 2 and also trying to find another instrument for diversification.
Tomorrow Monday US holiday "Labor Day" mixed up my gains...
Labor day is not a fix date but the first Monday in September. A US holiday.
Which influences European markets. It did.
I had a rule conflict on last Friday which ended in a stop loss.
Now I had to adapt my rule to the really rare occasion of having Labor Day
so early to the Last of month (means August).
Slight change in my long rule set - and BINGO - it should work from now on.
But my now obviously false decision steered the trade into a stop loss of -30.
Instead of getting 164 points with the long anticipating the US holiday.
grrrr...
Point.
Good trades!
GFIs1
PS: A special greeting to @Big Mike and his wife on their sweet honeymoon weekend!
Hi bmtrading9
Markets since start of the year show significant change of behavior.
That means normally to stay at the sidelines and to NOT trade real money.
Thus being prevented from losses.
But those findings need courage (and lost time staring at nonsense charts)
to find out that those hours are unpaid.
Moving to another market does not reduce the risk.
IF you feel uncertain on how to invest your money wisely - wait until
markets are back to "normal" again.
My filter to decide in the Dax is IB (9:00 to 9:30) should reach a min volume
of 8k contracts and be not over 11k. That is a rule of thumb which prevented
the system making to many negative trades.
Find it for your instrument.
I am glad I am thinking in the similar terms like you. Basically, I am looking at relative volume but with my recent software change to multicharts couldn't find good relative volume indicator. Whatever I found online not working in real time. I will definitely explore your idea.
My main issues are 1. Not having time at proper time and 2. Not letting the system run it's course for full day/week.
ES/NQ/YM might be an excellent candidate for the above min and max volume threshold filter because I believe DAX trades the same way. I will try to backtest and find it out. I said this before (maybe 3 or 4 years back) also, I really like your simplistic approach and thanks for all the help here.